tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42178443009314795032024-03-05T16:49:28.339-08:00SuperNova Elite ChaseTonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.comBlogger242125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-82593650552423000672018-12-20T12:22:00.001-08:002019-01-05T04:58:35.301-08:005 On and Off Table Essentials for Tilt PreventionI recently wrote this for one of my students having emotional issues at the table and thought it could be of use. There are 5 on table and 5 off table tips/areas that can help prevent tilt. All of these can and should be applied to everyday life.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: cyan; font-size: large;">On-Table Essentials for Tilt Prevention</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: yellow;">Stay involved in the process without focusing on money won or lost</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
A great way to do this is replay hands that went to showdown whether won or lost. At each decision point, determine whether we accounted for our opponents shown hand as being in their hand range. If so, great. If not, make a mental note of where our hand reading broke down and why. We've learned something not only about our opponent but where our thought process broke down. Taking the time to do this carries the benefits of remaining unemotional and solely focused on the game. The process is analogous to making a slam dunk or throwing the ball out of bounds and then immediately having to run back on defense.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Mike Krzyzewski, longtime head coach of Duke basketball has a great saying he's often shouting from the sidelines to his players, "Next play!".</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: yellow;">Mastery is in the moment</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
It's all too easy to get caught up ruminating about the past or future and to experience anxiety as a consequence. We're striving to stay in the moment each time a potentially stressful event at the table occurs: missing a value bet, getting bluffed, having a bluff fail, etc. Maintaining composure and staying in the moment is a victory in itself and part of being a master of the game, and more importantly ourselves. Every time we're able to accomplish this, it subsequently becomes easier to repeat.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I had a technique for this long before I had heard the word "mindfulness". I frequently played pool with one of the best players in New England, also one of my mentors. He'd often yell out, "Take me out coach!" after several consecutive bad "innings" or turns at the table. He didn't actually have a coach but was stepping outside of his chattering conscious mind to judge his mental state. Although he was doing this in a humorous way, it's something I adopted with poker.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
When I felt emotions creeping into my game or was unsatisfied with my game for any reason, I'd think back to this and pretend I was the coach of myself. I'd step outside of myself and try to look objectively at my mental state, my emotional state, my fatigue level, etc. After doing this, I'd try to make an unbiased judgement as to whether I should continue playing. It was almost as if I'd split into two people.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This not only served to make a good decision as to whether to continue playing, but took me away from the anxiety and stress.<br />
<br />
If we do decide to keep playing, we're frequently back in the moment without the stress and anxiety. There's a certain level of comfort gained in knowing that we've objectively assessed a situation and arrived at a rational decision. The result of this is regained focus and composure.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Staying in the moment is a constant journey with no end, embrace the journey itself.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: yellow;">Identify things that take us out of the moment or put us on tilt</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If we can identify these things, we can plan ahead for them. Planning ahead facilitates quick recognition, which allows us to momentarily step back and control our emotions.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Victor Frankl, a well known Holocaust survivor, has a famous quote, "Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and freedom."</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: yellow;">Detach ourselves from outcomes</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The only thing under our control is making the best decision with all the information we have available. This includes our hand in the context of our typical range in the situation (balance), our opponent(s) range of hands, the position of our opponents, the actions of our opponents, the size of the pot, how we'd expect our opponents to play certain hands within their range, how we'd expect our opponents would expect us to play certain hands in our range (this can be taken to a 4th or 5th level), a plan for the hand including how future turn and river cards can potentially alter that plan, and lastly any past opponent dynamics that could lead to an opportunity to exploit them.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If this seems like a lot to think about in a matter of seconds, it unquestionably is. All the more reason to keep our emotions at bay and prevent our much needed judgement from being clouded.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: yellow;">Lose our ego</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<u><br /></u></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This may be the single most important quality to have as a poker player and relates to the previous four topics. It's also one of the most difficult things to achieve.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
We are trying to make the best decisions which entails strategically outmaneuvering our opponents. In order to do this we need to understand their thought processes and at times be able to sense or feel their emotions.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Losing our ego when we get outmaneuvered, or when we get caught up in our opponent's emotions after being outmaneuvered, is a very difficult thing. We're trying to put ourselves in place of our opponents to better understand their mindset and emotional state. In a sense we're trying to empathize with our opponent. This can result in difficulty separating our own mind state and emotional state from our opponents. This can be especially true when we're getting outplayed or taking bad beats. This is sometimes referred to as emotional mirroring in psychology and is a human behavior that's evolved over millions of years to increase our chances of survival.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
All of the aforementioned suggestions aid in losing ego. We need to stay in the moment, stay detached, and come prepared for situations that can pull our egos into the game. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Additionally, we need to remain neutral under all circumstances, whether we win or lose. Imagine someone berating us at the table and giving us bad beats. The next hand, we cooler them with full house over full house. It would be very tempting to say something like, "There's justice!". But to remain ego less, we should say or show nothing.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
One problem (of many) with allowing our egos to be baited into this (however satisfying it may be), is that we have little control over future hands. Chances are we'll take a bad beat or get coolered by this player at some point. We're setting ourselves up to exacerbate the situation when our egos and emotions get tempted into the game. Everyone at the table benefits from this except the two people caught up in their egos.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Remaining neutral is victory. Eventually everyone is put in the same difficult situations. Even dealing with a belligerent player giving bad beats is something everyone will ultimately encounter. If we adopt a long-term view, this is an opportunity to separate ourselves from other players. It's very difficult for anyone to remain neutral in this type of situation, and few people can. If we can, we win and pick up expected value.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There is a good quote by Buddha that speaks to this, "Everything is based on mind, is led by mind, is fashioned by mind. If you speak and act with a polluted mind, suffering will follow."</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: cyan; font-size: large;">Off-Table Essentials for Tilt Prevention</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: yellow;">1. Nutrition</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Starting here because it's what I have the most knowledge of.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Disclaimer: What works for one person isn't necessarily optimal for the next person. I can offer general recommendations, which on average work best for a group of people, but not necessarily any particular person within the group. This is referred to as bio-individuality and relates to genetics and epigenetics (environment).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If you don't feel like reading through this lengthy section, there are three things everyone can do to drastically improve their health without reading further:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
1. Eat whole foods whenever possible</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
2. Remove as much refined sugar from your diet as possible (doesn't include fruit)</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
3. Remove as many processed carbs as possible. Processed carbs include things like sodas, fruit juices, donuts, cake, canned fruit, etc.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><i>Animals or Plants?</i></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There's a lot of debate in this area but one thing nearly everyone agrees upon is that we should have lots of fruits and vegetables in our diets. I don't believe in going to the extremes of being a vegetarian or carnivore. Though for some people with extreme health issues, the ends of the spectrum can literally be life saving.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
A whole food diet centered around vegetables and fruits with some fish and meat seems to be the happy middle ground where the majority of people are on board. Ethical considerations aside, I'm in this camp as well, as humans evolved over millions of years eating both plants and animals. There are beneficial and even essential nutrients that can only come from plants or animals, so supplementation is likely needed if you do opt for an extreme.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Worth noting that the evidence behind red meat (not processed meats like salami, pepperoni, etc.) causing cancer is shoddy at best. For more on this, there's a good recent debate between two well respected doctors in the field, Chris Kresser and Joel Kahn, that took place on the Joe Rogan podcast:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULtqCBimr6U">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULtqCBimr6U</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><i>Grass-Fed Beef?</i></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Although more expensive, grass-fed beef is healthier than traditional grain-fed beef. It contains more nutrients including Omega 3, CLA (conjugated linoleic acid), beta-carotene, and alpha-tocopherol (precursors to vitamins A and E). It's unclear which type of beef has the greater environmental impact.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Recommendation: Go grass-fed if you can afford it</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><i>Wild Caught Salmon or Farmed?</i></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The jury is out on this one despite all the claims of wild caught being healthier.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Farmed salmon, on average, has been found to have higher concentrations of Omega 3 (DHA and EPA) due to its higher fat content from farm feed. The is also true of trout, bass, and cod. However the farm feed can vary from farm to farm as can the fat content of wild salmon depending on when and where in their life cycle they were caught in the wild.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Wild caught fish have been found to have higher concentrations of vitamins A, B12, Iron, Zinc, and Calcium.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There are environmental concerns on both sides I won't get into.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Recommendation: Eat either one. They are both great sources of Omega 3 which are lacking in the rest of our diets in relation to Omega 6. In fact, salmon along with mackerel have the highest source of Omega 3 across all foods.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><i>Organic or Conventional?</i></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Again it may surprise you that the answer isn't so clear.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
First, there's little to no difference in the nutritional content between the two despite the many claims organic foods contain more nutrients.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Second, both use pesticides. The difference being that organic pesticides are naturally derived, with little known health ramifications, whereas conventional are synthetically derived. Additionally, there was a study in 2009 across 25 countries that found 8 different prohibited pesticides being used across "organic farms". The bottom line is you never know quite what you're getting.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Third, even though pesticide residues, on average, are found in greater quantities in conventional food, they're still well below the allowable limits. And given the relatively low amounts found, there isn't convincing evidence to date that they are associated with greater health risk.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Recommendation: Buy organic if you can afford it, otherwise go conventional. More important to get enough fruits and vegetables in our diets.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><i>Vitamin Supplements?</i></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
A resounding yes here. The benefits of vitamins are numerous. In particular, Vitamin C, Vitamin B3 (Niacin), and Vitamin D have tremendous health benefits. All the B vitamins are particularly good for cognition and mental health. For more on this:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMmu0OiM72w">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMmu0OiM72w</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Despite numerous erroneous articles and television reports (thanks Big Pharma), nearly all vitamins are safe even taken in large quantities. According to the poison control center, there were 10 reported deaths due to vitamins over a 23 year period and none in 2017. The exact cause of those 10 deaths is even questionable.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.doctoryourself.com/effectiveness.html">http://www.doctoryourself.com/effectiveness.html</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v13n02.shtml">http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v13n02.shtml</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Compare this with prescription drugs, where over 100,000 people die each year from <b><span style="color: orange;">properly</span></b> prescribed drugs.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If you're looking for a quality multivitamin, Thorne Research has them. They've consistently been rated one of the best supplement manufacturers in terms of quality and healthiest additives (fillers). They are a bit pricey however.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Thorne-Research-Multi-Vitamin-M-High-Performance/dp/B01M5JLXQG/ref=sr_1_4_s_it?s=hpc&ie=UTF8&qid=1545103776&sr=1-4&keywords=thorne%2Bresearch%2Bmulti&th=1">https://www.amazon.com/Thorne-Research-Multi-Vitamin-M-High-Performance/dp/B01M5JLXQG/ref=sr_1_4_s_it?s=hpc&ie=UTF8&qid=1545103776&sr=1-4&keywords=thorne%2Bresearch%2Bmulti&th=1</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: yellow;">2. Time Restricted Eating</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I gave this a category of its own because there is a mountain of evidence pouring in, seemingly daily, that points to tremendous health benefits including improved energy and cognition.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Time restricted eating (TRE) is limiting our food intake to a window of 12 hours or less per day. Ideally we'd like to eat within an 8 hour window as we'll reap the most benefits but there are even benefits being shown in studies restricting the window to 12 hours. Ideally, we'd like to eat in line with our circadian rhythm, our first meal within a few hours of waking up and our last meal at least a few hours before going to sleep.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
In a well known study, Satchin Panda fed mice the standard American diet (SAD) of high sugar and processed carbs. He split the mice into two groups, one that could eat the diet around the clock and the other was restricted to an 8 hour window. The mice eating around the clock predictably had a host of diseases including metabolic and fatty liver, and were obese. The mice eating the same unhealthy diet within an 8 hour window didn't gain weight and had almost no incidence of disease.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There are a number of new studies taking place that involve humans. The results are mirroring the results found in mice. People are eating whatever they want, within a small time frame (8-12 hours a day), and are losing weight in addition to reversing chronic conditions. It's shocking to say the least.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There is a good article on TRE here:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/timing-your-meals-may-help-with-weight-loss-thats-what-it-seems-to-do-in-mice/2018/03/23/14672fc0-f718-11e7-a9e3-ab18ce41436a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b6ba62a48bf9">https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/timing-your-meals-may-help-with-weight-loss-thats-what-it-seems-to-do-in-mice/2018/03/23/14672fc0-f718-11e7-a9e3-ab18ce41436a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b6ba62a48bf9</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Both of these podcasts on TRE with Satchin Panda are excellent:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R-eqJDQ2nU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R-eqJDQ2nU</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iywhaz5z0qs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iywhaz5z0qs</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
And if you really want to go deep on this topic:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Circadian-Code-Supercharge-Transform-Midnight/dp/B07F16S85B/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1545094187&sr=8-2&keywords=satchin+panda+book">https://www.amazon.com/Circadian-Code-Supercharge-Transform-Midnight/dp/B07F16S85B/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1545094187&sr=8-2&keywords=satchin+panda+book</a><br />
<br />
Lastly the first 35 minutes of this documentary on fasting (TRE is covered) is good. Free with Amazon Prime:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B07DPTTVG1/ref=pd_cbs_318_4">https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B07DPTTVG1/ref=pd_cbs_318_4</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: yellow;">3. Exercise</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Not much to say here. The benefits of exercise are numerous and well documented.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Lift weights and do cardio. Ideally, 20 minutes a day, 5 days a week of moderate to high intensity exercise. High intensity interval training (HIIT) is best.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If you hate cardio at the gym, take a walk outside in the sunshine for 45 minutes.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: yellow;">4. Sleep (Rest and Recovery)</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This is an area nearly all poker players struggle in, along with the vast majority of Americans.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
We should shoot for a minimum of 7 hours of sleep, ideally 8 or 9 per night. The negative effects of lack of sleep can't be understated. It impacts nearly every cognitive ability negatively.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Americans average about 6 hours of sleep. Worse, they're unable to recognize they're functioning sub-optimally. They've become so accustomed to sleep deprivation that it feels like their base mind and body state.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Some tips for sleeping better:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Reduce the temperature in your room prior to sleeping. Our body temperature needs to drop a few degrees before falling asleep. The ideal temperature for sleeping is 65 degrees (not a misprint).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Shut of as many lights as possible at least one hour prior to going to sleep. If you need lights on, try turning half the lights off.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Reduce exposure to blue light a few hours before going to bed. IPhone has a screen setting that will do this. There are also programs you can download for your desktop/laptop that will do the same. If you really want to get serious, try blue light blocking glasses:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B010B5GUH0?aaxitk=W3O2asr-vQD4ljau15bCrw&pd_rd_i=B010B5GUH0&pf_rd_p=3ff6092e-8451-438b-8278-7e94064b4d42&hsa_cr_id=9115264360901&sb-ci-n=asinImage&sb-ci-v=https%3A%2F%2Fimages-na.ssl-images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FI%2F51sxyLX5ClL.jpg&sb-ci-a=B010B5GUH0&th=1">https://www.amazon.com/dp/B010B5GUH0?aaxitk=W3O2asr-vQD4ljau15bCrw&pd_rd_i=B010B5GUH0&pf_rd_p=3ff6092e-8451-438b-8278-7e94064b4d42&hsa_cr_id=9115264360901&sb-ci-n=asinImage&sb-ci-v=https%3A%2F%2Fimages-na.ssl-images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FI%2F51sxyLX5ClL.jpg&sb-ci-a=B010B5GUH0&th=1</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Don't consume coffee within 8 hours of going to sleep (the half-life of caffeine is 5-6 hours). This means that even after 10-12 hours, 25% is still circulating our systems.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Get sunlight during the day.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Eliminate all noise. A sound machine or fan works great for this. There are also apps or even YouTube videos with white noise.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Try to fall asleep and wake up at similar times each day. For more on this, read the Circadian Code that's linked above.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-If you're having trouble sleeping, leave your normal sleeping place and try somewhere different.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
-Don't do anything in your bed other than sleep. We want our subconscious to only associate the bed with sleeping.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This is a fantastic podcast on sleep: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwaWilO_Pig">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwaWilO_Pig</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I recommend any podcast with Matthew Walker in it. He's a professor of neuroscience at Berkeley and founder of the Center for Human Sleep Science. Incredibly knowledgeable and has lots of interesting insights on sleep.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: yellow;">5. Meditation</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Not much to say here as I think everyone is aware of the benefits of meditation at this point. In particular, meditation is an amazing aid for all the "On-Table Essentials for Tilt Prevention" listed at the beginning of this post. It creates that space between stimulus and response that Victor Frankl alluded to.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
In terms of Podcasts, Sam Harris has some excellent ones with well known meditation teacher Joseph Goldstein:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://samharris.org/podcasts/the-path-and-the-goal/">https://samharris.org/podcasts/the-path-and-the-goal/</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://samharris.org/podcasts/why-meditate/">https://samharris.org/podcasts/why-meditate/</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Dan Harris (CBS news co-anchor) has a good Podcast series devoted to meditation:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="https://www.10percenthappier.com/podcast/">https://www.10percenthappier.com/podcast/</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Some apps you can use:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Calm, Headspace, The Mindfulness App, Buddhify</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-53263525575573780462018-04-30T21:30:00.000-07:002018-05-06T09:03:08.702-07:00Where Game Theory Optimal (GTO) FailsI realize this will be a controversial post among poker players but it's a discussion I haven't seen around the topic that I believe would benefit everyone.<br />
<br />
Disclaimer: I'm not a game theory expert nor do I possess expertise in the vast majority of its related subject matter.<br />
<br />
First what is game theory?<br />
<br />
Taken from Wikipedia:<br />
<br />
<i>"The study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent and rational decision makers."</i><br />
<br />
And what is game theory optimal or the commonly used poker expression GTO? - Several definitions are listed below to illustrate some of the confusion surrounding this phrase.<br />
<br />
This isn't so clear. The origins of the phrase itself aren't clear either. However, it seems to have originated from poker. Google Trends shows interest in the phrase peaked in December of 2004, not long after Chris MoneyMaker won the main event of the World Series and the subsequent poker boom.<br />
<br />
Here's one of the first definitions given from a "What is GTO poker?" Google search. Taken from a PokerNews article:<br />
<br />
<i>"GTO stands for "game theory optimal". In poker, this term gets thrown around to signal a few different concepts. It refers to thoughts about opponent modeling, and thinking about poker situations in terms of ranges and probabilities, as opposed to being strictly results oriented."</i><br />
<br />
Still isn't clear:<br />
<br />
Here's another definition taken from a different article:<br />
<br />
<i>"It refers to a decision in some particular situation for which an opponent cannot make a profitable counter."</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
A little clearer...<br />
<br />
The best definition I could find, and also the earliest I came across, comes from a 2003 University of Alberta research paper titled, "Approximating Game-Theoretic Optimal Strategies for Full-scale Poker."<br />
<br />
<span id="docs-internal-guid-a4eebd60-0c47-8bb6-35f3-5a7530291b54"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://poker.cs.ualberta.ca/publications/IJCAI03.pdf" style="text-decoration-line: none;">http://poker.cs.ualberta.ca/publications/IJCAI03.pdf</a></span></span><br />
<br />
It reads,<i> "Of particular interest is the existence of optimal solutions, or <b>Nash equilibria</b>. An optimal solution provides a randomized strategy, basically a recipe of how to play in each possible situation. Using this strategy ensures an agent will obtain at the least the game-theoretic value of the game regardless of the opponent's strategy."</i><br />
<br />
Much clearer and seems to be a good solution for solving poker games until the next sentence.<br />
<br />
<i>"Unfortunately finding exact optimal solutions is limited to relatively small problem sizes, and is not practical for most domains."</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Although this was written in 2003 and significant progress has been made in overcoming the lack of computing power, it remains today as the primary obstacle in solving poker games.<br />
<br />
And still today, Nash equilibrium is the logic powering GTO along with two of the most popular GTO solver programs, PioSolver and GTORangeBuilder.<br />
<br />
In the developer's words: Piosolver, "calculates optimal strategies, exact value and plays for every situation." GTORB goes as far as to say, "It's the holy grail of poker."<br />
<br />
But do they? And is it?<br />
<br />
A research paper written by the University of Alberta in January of 2017 titled, "Equilibrium Approximation Quality of Current No-Limit Poker Bots" may cast some doubt on the above claims:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~games/poker/publications/aaai17ws-lisy-lbr.pdf" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 11pt; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~games/poker/publications/aaai17ws-lisy-lbr.pdf</a><span id="docs-internal-guid-a4eebd60-1653-937e-2708-ac28f44fc4bf"></span><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Here's the last sentence taken from the Abstract of that paper that refers to a method UAB developed to evaluate the quality of current bots.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>"Using this method, we show that existing poker-playing programs, based on solving abstract games, are remarkably poor Nash equilibrium approximations."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
The paper looked at bots that competed in the 2016 Annual Computer Poker Competition (ACPC). In their words, <i>"These bots are developed by top research teams, use principled AI approaches, and the techniques they use are to large extent well documented."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
One of the techniques all bots use is something called abstraction. Because there isn't enough computing power to handle all the possible permutations such as the flop, turn, river cards, betting sequences, stack sizes, bet sizes, etc. (more on this later), similar things are lumped or bucketed together to put it in the simplest of terms.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
However this comes at the cost of accuracy. And this essentially is what the paper attempts to measure. The conclusion of this paper... well is a bit shocking:</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>"Using this method we show that existing poker bots, including the second and the third best performing bots in the ACPC in 2016, <b>all have exploitability substantially larger than folding all hands. The bots that use card abstraction are losing over 3 big blinds per hand on average against their worst case opponent.</b> Exploitability can be reduced by not using card abstraction, but that necessarily leads to using a very sparse betting abstraction, which can be heavily exploited as well. Therefore, we assume that a substantial paradigm shift is necessary to create bots that would closely approximate equilibrium in full no-limit Texas hold'em."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
I should stop here and be clear that current online GTO programs like PioSolver and GTORB were not included in this study. However, to the best of my understanding these programs use levels of abstraction to varying degrees. And as mentioned above, abstraction leads to reduced accuracy.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
If I were a user of these programs, understanding the degree or extent of this accuracy loss would be of concern. One of many concerns.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Let's take a look at what Nash equilibrium is since this is the engine powering the intelligence behind these programs.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Taken from Wikipedia: <span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium#Informal_definition">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium#Informal_definition</a></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>"It's a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Now that we have some, albeit limited understanding, let's dive into some of my major issues with GTO itself. We don't have to go further than the definition of Nash equilibrium:</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>"It's a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know equilibrium strategies of the other players."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
The previously linked 2003 UAB research paper also alludes to this assumption when referring to a GTO player:</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>"An implicit assumption is that the opponent is also playing optimally, and nothing can be gained by observing that opponent for patterns or weaknesses."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
When we, human beings that is, play poker, we absolutely can not assume that the other players know and/or are implementing equilibrium strategies. We can in fact assume the opposite, that no one is playing GTO. So from the start we're relying on a strategy that's predicated on a false assumption.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
The linked Nash equilibrium page from above continues with something called "Occurence":</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>According to Nash equilibrium if the following conditions are met, then we should adopt the NE strategy.</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>Sufficient conditions to guarantee that the Nash equilibrium are played are:</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> 1. The players all will do their utmost to maximize their expected payoff as described by the </i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> game.</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> 2. The players are flawless in execution.</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> 3. The players have sufficient intelligence to deduce the solution</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> 4. The players know the planned equilibrium of all other players</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> 5. The players believe that a deviation in their own strategy will not cause deviations by any other players.</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> 6. There is common knowledge that all players meet these conditions, including this one.</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> So not only must each player know the other players meet the conditions, but they must</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> know that they all know that they meet them, and know that they know that they meet</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i> them and so on.</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Do any of these, much less all of them, ring true in the games you're playing in? These are the conditions or restraints set forth as to when Nash equilibrium should be adopted.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
At this point if you're a GTO proponent you may be saying to yourself, "But we still have a strategy that can't be exploited by another opponent." I won't argue the validity of this statement except to say I'd be willing to bet it's false due to the aforementioned abstraction issues alone.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Notwithstanding, let's take on the assumption we do have a strategy that can't be exploited by another opponent. As poker players, our goal is to make the most money possible. The goal is <b><span style="color: white;">NOT</span></b> "to not lose money."</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
We should set out to maximize the expected value of every decision within the context of all our decisions. Not to strictly ensure we always have some non-zero positive expected value. If we only care about positive expected value as GTO does, then it's a virtual certainty we'll fail to maximize that expected value.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
There was a recent Twitter poll offered by Olivier Busquet that shows just how much confusion there is around GTO and the above statements.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">https://mobile.twitter.com/olivierbusquet/status/966351748028862471</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><br /></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
He asks, "If a perfect GTO bot played only live tournaments 25K entry or higher it would be:</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
-Far and away the best</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
-Marginally the best</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
-Among the elite</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
-A winner but not elite</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
At the time of this writing the results were 8071 votes with the choices receiving 32%, 17%, 23%, 29% respectively. That's about as statistically insignificant of a result from a 4 question poll as we'll ever see.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
To be fair to the participants, there's inherent confusion with the question itself. In order to judge whether someone, or something in this case, would be the "best" or "elite", we need to define those terms. Does "best" mean the person who makes the most money? Or does best mean that player that is most skilled assuming that could be measured somehow? Does it mean something else?</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Personally, I'd define "best" as having the highest positive monetary expectation.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
I do not believe the perfect GTO bot would make the most money. It would make some money because it would never make a decision that resulted in negative expected value. But, it wouldn't make the most money because it wouldn't fully exploit the errors of its opponents. And I'd argue even at this level of play, sizable mistakes are being made with meaningful frequency.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
David Sklansky, noted poker author and creator of Twoplustwo poker forums is on record saying the following about Cepheus, the bot that "solved" heads up fixed limit hold'em:</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i>"If the computer is playing a bad player, it will win but it won't win as quickly as a human being playing a bad player." He then goes on to say, "I will destroy that beginner to a greater degree than this computer program will."</i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
A perfect GTO bot doesn't care about the size of your mistakes. It by definition assumes it's playing against a group of players that are also playing an unexploitable strategy and therefore plays its unexploitable strategy in response. Once it's established (incorrectly) the other players are playing flawlessly, Nash equilibrium is adopted, and the other players become irrelevant in a sense.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Again we're back to the issue of the false assumption that our opponents are playing perfectly.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Where the crux of the debate generated from Olivier's poll question lies is in whether best exploitive human being extracts more money from its opponents than the best unexploitable robot extracts from those same opponents. </div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
There really are two ends of the spectrum here that I think just about everyone would agree on:</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
1. A human being will extract more money from a beginner than a robot</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
2. A robot will extract more money from an expert player than a human being</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
So if you agree with the above, there's some unknown place representative of our opponents collective skill level that lies between "beginner" and "expert" that answers Olivier's question.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
I have no indisputable proof to answer this question. I do have a strong opinion after playing over six million hands online. Tens of thousands of these were played against robots with GTO aspirations. And hundreds of thousands more against human beings that fell more into the GTO spectrum than the exploitive. </div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
I think you can guess my opinion. Perhaps unsurprisingly though, these GTO based opponents were the toughest to play against. However, they weren't the big winners in the game as evidenced by results on PokerTableRatings and to a lesser extent, the results in my own database.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
It's worth noting, we have no idea how many players failed attempting to adopt a GTO strategy relative to how many failed in an attempt to adopt an exploitive strategy. In other words there's inherent selection bias in only looking at the results of players that amassed a high volume of hands. And to some degree all players are always playing, or at least striving, to implement some mixture of approximate GTO (balance) and exploitive play. As it's impossible for a human being to play "perfect" poker.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Let's put all this aside for a moment to discuss what I believe is the most compelling argument against GTO. Let's assume we don't care about using a strategy that doesn't meet the requirements of the game it was designed for. Let's also assume we don't care about maximizing expected value but do care about having non-zero positive expected value.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Let's also assume that (insert your favorite GTO program here) *accurately* provides these strategies and they do meet the Nash Equilibrium criteria and have positive expected value.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="color: yellow;">Note: Accurately is starred above because I'm not sure if there has been third party testing to ensure the accuracy of the output of poker GTO programs on the market. If I did use them, this would another concern in addition to the aforementioned abstraction issues.</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Given these assumptions, how as a human being do we plan on implementing these strategies?</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Let's hypothetically take something as seemingly simple as whether we should open T6 offsuit from the button playing limit Hold'em. We launch our program and input the assumed range of our perfect playing opponent. It responds by recommending T6o as a profitable open. So we dutifully open it from the button from that point forward.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
There are a host of problems with this even after setting the aforementioned issues aside.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
We don't get dealt T6 offsuit every hand, it's one of many hands that get dealt to us. We always have to think of this hand in the context of our range of opening hands as the program does. So maybe you're thinking, "Not a problem, I can memorize the actions of every preflop hand that program suggests."</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
But can you also memorize the ~9 possible betting sequences to take T6o on each of the 17926 flops, 45 turns, and 44 rivers that went into the program calculating the profitability of opening that hand? If my math is right, that's 25,874,746,920 iterations. Yes 25 billion. And remember this is only for T6o offsuit.</div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
Here's the calculation for all hands taken from <span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1302.7008.pdf" style="text-decoration-line: none;">https://arxiv.org/pdf/1302.7008.pdf</a></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7nOy-bdcik0N4_l_16N43jZ3YkN57a5c9AS4VoXvAT6rL6ldwYJZluypOtUvyKX-Feqe5uI-A7_WvTZhjIQg8LwpWHW7HJLYzAOLOwzZbGFXUgqMdEWPIHYKeNoEuK0OoRYS0arSzPZA/s1600/Blogger.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="572" data-original-width="541" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7nOy-bdcik0N4_l_16N43jZ3YkN57a5c9AS4VoXvAT6rL6ldwYJZluypOtUvyKX-Feqe5uI-A7_WvTZhjIQg8LwpWHW7HJLYzAOLOwzZbGFXUgqMdEWPIHYKeNoEuK0OoRYS0arSzPZA/s400/Blogger.png" width="377" /></a></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span id="docs-internal-guid-a4eebd60-1672-109f-b89f-9f1d182a248e"><br /></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-a4eebd60-165d-7f80-fbed-82f4b342db48"><br /></span>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<br />
<br />
That's 319 trillion. If every person on earth today memorized 10,000 of these possible permutations, we still wouldn't come close to committing them to our collective consciousness.<br />
<br />
Essentially what we're seeing when looking at the output of one of these programs is a microscopic view of a drop of water derived from a vast ocean. We're assuming because we can see say the end result of a shooting star, that we can see the entire universe. We can't see it, much less understand it.<br />
<br />
This short discussion taken from a 2+2 thread I stumbled across a few days ago illustrates the point:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/53/mid-high-stakes-limit/2018-nc-lc-thread-we-ever-going-get-title-1700128/index2.html" style="text-decoration-line: none;">https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/53/mid-high-stakes-limit/2018-nc-lc-thread-we-ever-going-get-title-1700128/index2.html</a></span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The poster states he's "super confused" when playing against Cepheus. Cepheus defends Js3s against a button open playing heads up. The flop is Ac 8h 4s and Cepheus check/calls.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The poster, "can't see how that's possibly in his range" referring to the flop call.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Another poster chimes in with some good information. <i>"Looks like the bot continues 100% on this flop, check raises 18% with the backdoor outs as a bluff. When I switch the 4s to the 4h it moves it to a 100% fold. If I change the Ace to Kc, it again continues 100%, check raising 15% as a bluff."</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
The poster then points out that Cepheus is check raising 100% of the time on this flop when it holds Ks3s and is understandably surprised at this.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Another poster responds to the fact he's check raising Ks3s 100% and says, "<i>K3s is not a hand you really want to call 3 times with. Yes better to raise for thin value!"</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
A simple check of an equity calculator shows this isn't a "value raise" even with the most liberal of assumptions to support the claim.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I could take this haphazard assignment of reason further and surmise Cepheus is combining his equity (derived from the high card value, pair outs, and backdoor draws) with his opponent's potential fold equity gained by raising. Maybe the 5c comes on the turn and Cepheus gets his opponent to fold 22 or 33 as one example.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The reality is, we have little idea why Cepheus is making these plays and as to why with these specific frequencies. Sure we can evaluate the strength of his hand in relation to the board and his opponent's range by observing things like he has a backdoor flush draw, backdoor straight draw, and some high card value. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But why are we check raising Js3s 18% of the time and Ks3s 100% of the time? Why not 14% and 91%? Why are we check raising or calling at all? Why aren't we leading? Why didn't we 3Bet preflop? Maybe we did 3Bet preflop 72% of the time an are unknowingly looking at the other 28%. The questions are numerous and unanswerable.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Only Cepheus who has examined every possible turn and river card in addition to every conceivable betting sequence hammered out via trillions of hands against another presumed omniscient opponent "understands" why it's doing that.<br />
<br />
I have to reiterate this point because it's an important one. This is just one hand in a range of hands. In fact, it's possible to make plays with negative expected value in a vacuum that increase the overall profitability of all our hands in the same situation.<br />
<br />
When I refer to it being "just one hand in a range of hands", I'm talking about this:<br />
<br />
Not only all the hands we have in this situation. "Situation" being defined as our range that calls versus a button open. But, also to all the different action sequences that can arise on the flop, turn, and river. And this is in addition to all the flop, turn, and river cards themselves.<br />
<br />
For example, we'd like to have hands that can bet/3-bet, bet/call, bet/fold, check/call, check raise, check raise/fold, check raise/4-bet, check/fold, etc. etc. on the flop. And not only the flop, but the turn and river as well. So we're targeting balance within all the conceivable action sequences on all the conceivable turn and river cards within the context of our entire range. Even this paragraph is an oversimplification of the immense complexity involved.<br />
<br />
You can view a range of hands like the instruments in an orchestra, all working in harmony to produce a beautiful melody. To take one hand like Js3s out of a range on the flop might be analogous to walking over to the flute player, listening to he or she play a perfect note or two, and concluding you're ready to conduct the symphony.<br />
<br />
The answer as to why Cepheus is doing this is unknowable for a human being. This can be proven at the most basic level because Cepheus is making these plays in response another assumed perfect playing opponent. To even begin investigating the true reasons behind these plays, we'd have to fully understand how its opponent is playing.<br />
<br />
I'd like to end on a bit of a positive note towards GTO. I'm not opposed to the idea of GTO itself and we should all strive to have a better understanding of it. In simple terms, we want a firm grasp of balance particularly against more skilled players and in more common situations that arise at a poker table. And examining GTO programs can certainly help point us in the right direction, particularly in seeking answers to more theoretical questions. Though I think there are simpler and more effective ways.<br />
<br />
I look at balance like the volume knob on a stereo. The better my opponent and/or the more common the situation, the higher I'll dial the balance knob up. The worse my opponent or less common the situation, the lower the volume.<br />
<br />
Granted the volume on my stereo doesn't go nearly as high as say Cepheus' but neither does my opponents.<br />
<br />
-Tony Pirone<br />
TPirahna<br />
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
I will make a post in the near future that goes into a lot more detail surrounding<br />
balance and the practical implementation of it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-14003604817625177872018-04-23T06:15:00.000-07:002018-04-23T06:15:21.130-07:00A Return to BloggingI'm not sure if anyone reads this blog anymore but there will be more posts in the near future. I'm back playing live poker and immersing myself in the game.<br />
<br />
The posts from here on out will be strategy and psychology related.<br />
<br />
Hope you enjoy.Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-61791168849917845532017-02-16T20:20:00.000-08:002017-02-16T20:20:13.686-08:00Coaching!It's been a long time since I last posted here. I played Fantasy Sports for about a year and a half, came to the conclusion I could make more playing poker and went back to live poker for about 20 months.<br />
<br />
Although both endeavors were successful, it's time to move on to something else. The live poker environment is unhealthy and chaotic to say the least. Throughout the years I had mentioned here on more than a few occasions that I didn't know how live poker players did it. I'm still not sure how they do it. The drama, the angle-shooting, the general chaos is all something I don't want to be a part of if I don't have to. I'd like to limit my time to ten to twenty hours a week at this point.<br />
<br />
My focus now is on coaching and eventually writing a book, hopefully the best book that's ever been written on LHE. I'd anticipate this will take 5-10 years to complete but I've begun the journey.<br />
<br />
I started a coaching thread on 2+2 about two weeks ago. So far I'm up to 5 students. Ideally, I'd like to coach 10 at any given time. So there are spots open at this point.<br />
<br />
All the information and specifics can be found here:<br />
<br />
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/164/cash-game-poker-coach-listings/tpirahna-limit-holdem-strategic-coach-amp-life-mentor-1651623/<br />
<br />
Feel free to ask questions via the thread or email.<br />
<br />
I plan on updating this blog more frequently as well. It'll probably relate to topics being covered in my book along with a new spiritual journey I'm on in life. More on the latter to follow.<br />
<br />
Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-64702083597261906102014-10-17T13:04:00.001-07:002014-10-17T13:04:26.374-07:00Fantasy Sports LinksI feel a little guilty even posting these but at the same time I think it's kind of stupid not to. I'm posting links for the various fantasy sites so if anyone that reads my blog wants to sign up and signs up through the links, I'll get a portion of your rakeback. It's basically the same deal as how affiliates work with poker.<br />
<br />
I actually received several offers through the years to post links, banners, etc. in my blog in return for a fee and always refused. I've never really done the whole affiliate thing but with all the interest in Fantasy sports and all the people contacting me with questions and interest I think it would be dumb not to post them. So if you are interested in Fantasy Sports, have liked my blog, and would like to give something back to me, the links are below.<br />
<br />
I also linked the 2+2 "Well" in case you haven't seen it - you can ask me anything there and I'll be happy to respond. Also I linked a PokerFuse article that was written the other day about my transition to Fantasy Sports.<br />
<br />
I actually had decided a few months ago that I wanted to keep my decision to transition to DFS kind of low-key. Oops. Well that's all out the window at this point. I really wasn't expecting so much attention and interest.<br />
<br />
DFS Links:<br />
<br />
DraftKings:<a href="https://www.draftkings.com/r/SteveAvery"> https://www.draftkings.com/r/SteveAvery</a><br />
<br />
FanDuel: <a href="https://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=ronniegant&cnl=da">https://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=ronniegant&cnl=da</a><br />
<br />
DraftDay: <a href="https://www.draftday.com/invite/TomGlavine">https://www.draftday.com/invite/TomGlavine</a><br />
<br />
If anyone has any DFS questions regarding the sites, feel free to email me at tony.pirone@gmail.com<br />
<br />
2+2 Well: <a href="http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18/high-stakes-limit/retirement-poker-tpirahna-well-1479652/">http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18/high-stakes-limit/retirement-poker-tpirahna-well-1479652/</a><br />
<br />
PokerFuse: <a href="http://pokerfuse.com/features/in-depth/25931-online-poker-legend-quits-pursue-fantasy-sports/">http://pokerfuse.com/features/in-depth/25931-online-poker-legend-quits-pursue-fantasy-sports/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-60340588005017882092014-10-03T18:56:00.001-07:002018-02-27T08:16:31.716-08:00Retirement<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m officially retired from poker. I've put off this blog post for a while
trying to be certain that I’m done and while I’m still not 100% certain, I’m
more certain now than at any other point.
That said I will probably play poker in some capacity in the future,
even if only for recreational purposes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A number of factors led me to this decision. First and foremost, I’m sick of playing. It was sometime last year that I realized I
didn't want to be playing much longer.
I’m 39 years old now and it has become more and more difficult to sit in
front of a computer all day with my attention constantly focused with decision
after decision being presented for hour after hour. Five years ago it was fairly easy for me to
play six tables of short-handed LHE for many hours, remain focused at all of
them, and have a pretty good idea of what was going on at each. This year it felt like torture trying to
playing four tables and I found it very difficult to have that same level of
focus for any extended period of time.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
More than just getting older, poker became less and less fun
and more and more like work to the point where I've dreaded playing many
days. I've likely logged more online
hours and possibly more hands of LHE than anyone alive. I started playing over ten years ago and put in a tremendous amount of volume each of those
years. I don’t know how many hours I
played but a rough estimate of hands is 6 Million. In the early days, I was eager to play every day
and brought my laptop everywhere (literally everywhere) not of
necessity, but out of a burning desire to play.
That desire is long gone.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another factor that led to this decision is the current
environment in online poker. Making
money in high-stakes online games is more about table selection, seat
selection, and quickness to the tables than about actual skill. <br />
<br />
The actual skill of playing is still a prerequisite for
making money but the vast majority of high stakes regulars are separated
in skill by a fraction of a big bet. <br />
<br />
So other non-poker related skills carry much greater weight than they
previously did. I can’t complain
about these non-poker related skills as I've benefited from them as
much as anyone. But now that nearly everyone is
aware, the landscape has transformed into a race to get to tables and
into a contest to see who can get position on the recreational player. What was once an easy advantage has turned
into a major headache when trying to multi-table. If I was only playing a few hours a day at a
few tables, I don’t think it would be much trouble to have all the tables open
and hop on one immediately when a recreational player sits. But when trying to multi-table for endless
hours, also trying to keep every table open while vigilantly watching to see if
a seat is about to be taken can be maddening.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Much more than that, it takes away from the fun of the game
and the actual game of poker itself. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another factor (and there are many more) in the decision
to retire was the constant travel after Black Friday. As cool as it is to experience different
cultures and live in exotic locations, it also gets old after a while. There are a LOT of things in the US that I
miss, most of all playing pool. I've spent more time playing pool in my life
than I have playing poker to give you an idea and if faced with a choice of
being able to do either (and being able to make the same amount of money) I’d
choose pool in a heartbeat. And I would
of said that at any time during my poker career. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Enter the possible solution to all my problems: Daily
Fantasy Sports<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
-Totally legal in the US which solves the travel issue
(along with a host of other issues including the ongoing banking nightmare that
stems from being an American online poker player)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
-Extremely fun as I love sports and competition. It’s a new challenge that I wake up every
day excited to try to take on.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
-Makes good use of a lot of my biggest strengths. Math/odds, knowledge of sports betting
markets and lines, psychology, bankroll management, etc. etc.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
-A relatively new industry very similar to poker ten years
ago in terms of growth and money making potential. There are a number of other striking
similarities but I won’t get into them here.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It still remains to be seen whether I can support myself and
family playing DFS and hence why I’m not 100% certain I’m done with poker. I will say I’m very optimistic about my chances
and have done exceptionally well in the nine weeks or so I’ve been
playing. One thing that is for certain
is that I’ll be doing everything in my power to make it work and not have to
come back to poker. It wouldn’t bother
me a bit if I never played another hand of online poker again (fingers
crossed).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So this is likely to be my last blog post though I may post
some personal stuff here from time to time.
Like if I’m lucky enough to play Efren Reyes in pool again <span style="font-family: "wingdings"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">J</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I would like to extend an offer to 2+2, hopefully one of the
moderators there will read this. I would
be happy to do a “Well” on 2+2 where I answer any and all questions related to
poker. I’d be willing to answer pretty
much anything and would take the time to thoughtfully answer as many questions
as possible. I think I could probably do
something on par to the Phil Galfond well that was done a while back. I
actually have some downtime with DFS over the next three weeks so that would be
the best time for me to do it. I can be
reached at tony.pirone@gmail.com<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That’s hopefully it.
I hope everyone enjoyed following this blog, maybe learned something from it, and possibly gained some inspiration from it.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Good luck at the tables.<br />
<br />
Update: Here's a link to the 2+2 "Well": <a href="http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18/high-stakes-limit/retirement-poker-tpirahna-well-1479652/index4.html">http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18/high-stakes-limit/retirement-poker-tpirahna-well-1479652/index4.html</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-11525626944543436702014-07-21T21:40:00.000-07:002014-07-21T22:01:42.372-07:00Likely The End Of The ChaseSeveral people have asked me when I'm going to update my blog and I apologize for the delay. I just haven't felt like blogging and the updates from here on out will likely be sporadic. I know people really enjoy seeing my results so that's the majority of what will be posted.<br />
<br />
I'm right about at would be the midpoint of the year VPP wise but it's extremely unlikely at this point that I'll try to make SNE. I just don't have the same drive this year and have no interest in killing myself for next 2-3 months to do it. This is my 10th consecutive year putting in this type of volume (6 on Stars and 4 on UB) and it's really wearing on me. Things would be so much easier if I could play from the US but alas it is what it is. So unless something changes drastically for me financially, I'm not even going to try. <br />
<br />
My plan at this point is still to play about 40 hours a week but to try to play during the busiest times and play some really focused poker. Playing 4-5 tables for endless hours makes it nearly impossible to be totally focused and motivated so I'm hoping the reduced hours help with that.<br />
<br />
This is what the year has looked liked so far big bet wise:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOq2FT98bxFR7kn35GOxm1KayuRg2upZApBbNsvA23eNIY7PFB6Wy9OgG48WYzWnqxLk6SuVPbQYLI8uGx0tJYDRpjPI7PBkJt6Guyszk9sAc5J5P-xxL3FXdG09HeXE4hCD7-lbfDGs0/s1600/BB.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOq2FT98bxFR7kn35GOxm1KayuRg2upZApBbNsvA23eNIY7PFB6Wy9OgG48WYzWnqxLk6SuVPbQYLI8uGx0tJYDRpjPI7PBkJt6Guyszk9sAc5J5P-xxL3FXdG09HeXE4hCD7-lbfDGs0/s1600/BB.JPG" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
It looks like a pretty typical TPirahna graph.<br />
<br />
<br />
Here's what the year has looked like in terms of $ won:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY6R2-7oLH73oGwlsw9qvyhMVlrh1qyBBFVHzOkPLa83v2SJgjgO7t4bU2LtoTT5OYQpWEbmwUOqxgugi-y9yMyX8v9LS_7mUul008IauAGblrVUUl8RXTdci4TbFDObZ-Ovq8KqoX1nE/s1600/$.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY6R2-7oLH73oGwlsw9qvyhMVlrh1qyBBFVHzOkPLa83v2SJgjgO7t4bU2LtoTT5OYQpWEbmwUOqxgugi-y9yMyX8v9LS_7mUul008IauAGblrVUUl8RXTdci4TbFDObZ-Ovq8KqoX1nE/s1600/$.JPG" height="220" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
This is by far the worst 250K+ hand stretch I've had in the last 4 years despite the recent upswing. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkbf9v9kzfNaCkqYTqIXjoeKSl0Hpy5gUNyyxLTaKJgoJDOTeXzT_ezsJAwDTXRetIzDyD6q1okmbqmKpVfP2n-qyicU8jZPPgT6Tx8_Az1wbh6KWvLEjzpQAKVg9OJN3uHtSuUQ5UPhE/s1600/HEM.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkbf9v9kzfNaCkqYTqIXjoeKSl0Hpy5gUNyyxLTaKJgoJDOTeXzT_ezsJAwDTXRetIzDyD6q1okmbqmKpVfP2n-qyicU8jZPPgT6Tx8_Az1wbh6KWvLEjzpQAKVg9OJN3uHtSuUQ5UPhE/s1600/HEM.JPG" height="83" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
As you can see in the last screen capture, I'm actually down money at my three highest limits combined. I believe only a month ago, I was down over 40K between the 3 limits so I feel very good about where I stand right now. Funny how your perspective and emotions can change depending on whether the money was won and then lost or lost and then won.<br />
<br />
I've played some really good poker the last few weeks, easily the best of the year. I think making the decision to abandon SNE has given me a sense of freedom and control back. It's refreshing in a way and I've felt really comfortable and focused while playing. It makes such a big difference to want to play as opposed to being forced to play. I'm still forced to play to some degree because I need the money but 40 hours a week seems like a breeze compared to the 70+ I was playing.<br />
<br />
I'll have another update likely by the end of August. Good luck at the tables everyone.<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-38938158009817805962014-06-01T19:56:00.002-07:002014-06-01T20:00:10.698-07:00May in the BooksI finally rebounded a bit in May and had a pretty respectable month. In terms of big bets won, it's one of my best in the past couple years.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8B4cUENGN-F4s75Pm7gNhfyina6EEzn_KcSRQPYTdmoGNnnH_VFu5nPbnRk1fNYZkJzE9M-mejT8K_luUUC8cOlw_m9J6pON9kOIzIasdKYPO5cBdTdPUI-GW7VAIE-uunkyM5tpXhRQ/s1600/MayPT.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8B4cUENGN-F4s75Pm7gNhfyina6EEzn_KcSRQPYTdmoGNnnH_VFu5nPbnRk1fNYZkJzE9M-mejT8K_luUUC8cOlw_m9J6pON9kOIzIasdKYPO5cBdTdPUI-GW7VAIE-uunkyM5tpXhRQ/s1600/MayPT.JPG" height="95" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Overall, I'm still very concerned with my mental state. I'm completely unmotivated and going through the motions way too often. My primary focus is on VPPs every day and it feels like torture trying to reach the VPP goals I set. I have some moments or hours of clarity where I'm thinking clearly, focused, and know what's going on at my tables. But those moments are few and far between. Far more often I'm in sort of a haze just going through the motions and struggling to focus. <br />
<br />
As I mentioned in my last post, there's nothing left in the game for me except money. There's no other incentive or motivation at this point. Despite some of the obvious problems with PTR, it at least gave me something to shoot for - being the leading $ winner at the various limits or racing for the all-time $ lead. I wish that aspect was brought back, it least would give me something else to shoot for. As it stands, my poker days are numbered. When I get home in the fall, I'm going to work hard to transition into some other forms of gambling that I enjoy more.<br />
<br />
As far as my mass multitabling plan of low-limits, it lasted about 3 days. I believe I won 510 BB's in 3 days 6-7 tabling 5/10 to 15/30 but I'm confident it's some of the worst poker I've played in a long, long time. I have a lot of difficulty committing myself to doing something where I know I'm not doing it to the best of my ability. It frustrates me to know I'm making countless mistakes that could be avoided by dropping tables and slowing down. There's a trade-off of course which is I earn VPPs at a much faster rate. So at this point I've modified my plan and am alternating between playing some "mindless" sessions where I'm 5-6 tabling low limits and focused (at least trying to focus) sessions of 3-4 tables from 10/20 to 50/100. I'm done at the moment playing 100/200 and 200/400 and it's unlikely I'll play very much more in the future until Poker Stars fixes their non-random button issue. It's to the point where many of the games are totally unplayable because of the rec players hopping tables - this inevitably causes the players that aren't starting the tables to play more blind positions than non-blind positions. Additionally, it's a lot less stress not having $40K-$100K swings every month or two. Ultimately it will mean less money but I think the tradeoff of less stress is worth it at this point.<br />
<br />
On the VPP front, I'm about a month behind pace, currently at 340K VPPs. It seems like every day I wake up with a goal to do at least 5K VPPs and I consistently fall short. It's very hard to believe that I once did 7K per day for 3 months straight. 5K seems like an eternity these days. I have no idea if I'll make SNE this year, at the rate I'm going, it doesn't look like it. Hopefully I'll find some motivation and drive somewhere.<br />
<br />
Good Luck to everyone at the WSOP and online in June.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-81401630375123763572014-05-26T21:16:00.001-07:002014-05-26T21:16:14.283-07:00Serious VarianceI figured this would be as good a time as any for my annual, sometimes bi-annual, post on just how utterly insane the variance in this game is.<br />
<br />
My prior fifty thousand hands leading into this month looked like this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrVgctI3GU4G1ehFedlxJaBC2f9Da4EqYHbNo9J99Fjx5ldodYqb7KTqmpIEMF78g4Owa2SXWvywRLMUyPG9n4D1UCjslGYK0y7K6FaEW7LLzbmtRrB9LgdDch6nAy9guYizmRcQY38q0/s1600/50K+Breakeven.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrVgctI3GU4G1ehFedlxJaBC2f9Da4EqYHbNo9J99Fjx5ldodYqb7KTqmpIEMF78g4Owa2SXWvywRLMUyPG9n4D1UCjslGYK0y7K6FaEW7LLzbmtRrB9LgdDch6nAy9guYizmRcQY38q0/s1600/50K+Breakeven.JPG" height="346" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
My next 57Kish this month have looked like this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis_eUA8SNBemPdul4d_wbeg1op-yqq9EOzpp0xyW1FbasWdiOnNpxu2Jh9XSWBZnfx3KDSNf1Bor63kyhhph38jsX5dgODqMjXr2tgYR_qT5nQ7vZRBYoy_kxubweYL9hYwUpc9qF2zec/s1600/Next+50K.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis_eUA8SNBemPdul4d_wbeg1op-yqq9EOzpp0xyW1FbasWdiOnNpxu2Jh9XSWBZnfx3KDSNf1Bor63kyhhph38jsX5dgODqMjXr2tgYR_qT5nQ7vZRBYoy_kxubweYL9hYwUpc9qF2zec/s1600/Next+50K.JPG" height="356" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Even that graph doesn't do justice to how insanely well I've run. I'm up over 1800 BB's pre-rake which I'm quite sure is a one month record for me<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3jECRz7B9tjkinQAuwrsZCPMhKXJrXlhC1cSYdYE5nVYRLJ1m0imOKvYWRVKxRhxUesBxoIA2tM0oE7U_bJHTfnfUbaR3VmMBuqx08zxvNnSOW63kJXWKDRQU9CLER_jeXB2nIn-kzjE/s1600/PTWinStreak.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3jECRz7B9tjkinQAuwrsZCPMhKXJrXlhC1cSYdYE5nVYRLJ1m0imOKvYWRVKxRhxUesBxoIA2tM0oE7U_bJHTfnfUbaR3VmMBuqx08zxvNnSOW63kJXWKDRQU9CLER_jeXB2nIn-kzjE/s1600/PTWinStreak.JPG" height="164" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
This could be the time to get carried away with myself and talk about how I've mastered the game, have soul reads on all the regulars, and am ready to jump into the 1K/2K games (pretending they ever ran) because I'll never lose again.<br />
<br />
Nothing really could be further from the truth and that line of thinking greatly increases the chances that my next 50K will look a lot more like the 1st graph and a lot less like the 2nd (I've made this mistake many times in the past). I've played well this month but it's all so subjective. When you consistently run into the bottom of your opponent's ranges, sure all your bluffs are going to work and you're going to feel like you're playing your A game. When your opponents are consistently running into the top of your range with their bluffs, you're going to feel like you're "owning" them. When you win 70% of the 15+ BB pots you're involved in, you're very likely to be on a massive heater and actually start believing that you should be winning that percentage of big pots on a consistent basis. In the end, it's all just variance.<br />
<br />
I say this every year and will keep saying it, do not under any circumstances underestimate the variance in this game. 50K hands is nothing, 1000 big bets (won or lost) is very little. The key is to stay even keel with your emotions and be focused on one thing: making the best decision possible with all the information you have available, each and every decision.<br />
<br />
I'll have another update at the end of the month along with some details on how my low-limit multi-tabling plan went.<br />
<br />
Good luck everyone.<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-38925126621133999742014-05-01T20:04:00.001-07:002014-05-01T20:11:32.194-07:00Stake Variance Continues in Costa RicaMy frustrating year continues:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDxp-uEanaxOLy_7so8hGcBwq-syRzuwN95gTTAZY2ibjDSK-4sKvl37O4qXAUcm76LF-lSOLyI4FPhYM_riQvvZyTGMJrRJ_aQpqhdNTZnJub_eL6xKuizEGWkzjjHlKr0eH2v0XHfp4/s1600/PT.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDxp-uEanaxOLy_7so8hGcBwq-syRzuwN95gTTAZY2ibjDSK-4sKvl37O4qXAUcm76LF-lSOLyI4FPhYM_riQvvZyTGMJrRJ_aQpqhdNTZnJub_eL6xKuizEGWkzjjHlKr0eH2v0XHfp4/s1600/PT.JPG" height="102" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
In terms of money won, it's my worst start to a year in nine years as a pro. It's easy to blame it all on variance but I've also been less motivated this year than any other and feel like I've played some of the worst poker I've played in recent memory. I'm sure the truth is somewhere between and it's some combination of running bad and playing bad. One thing's for sure, I've run terribly at high limits.<br />
<br />
I've given serious consideration to quitting online poker or at least doing it in a reduced fashion and pursuing some other interests, As nice as it is to visit all these exotic locations, all the travel is getting tiresome and I'd much prefer to be home. Also the grind of playing ten to twelve hours a day for nine months is really wearing on me as well. The idea is to be happy and even though I have the last three months of the year off, I'm not too happy the other nine. This has been in the back of my mind for a while and I think it's only a matter of time before I pursue something else.<br />
<br />
I decided yesterday to make a pretty drastic strategy change in how I'm approaching things. Up until today, I've been trying to play the majority of hands at 30/60+. The result of this is a lot of downtime when no games are running, a lot of lobby/table watching which takes away from focus on the games and a lot of frustration with the table hopping (and the unavoidable consequences that come with this) that's en vogue with the high limit recreational players these days.<br />
<br />
So my new plan (for now at least), is to 6-8 table 5/10 to 50/100 and try to earn 7-8K VPPs a day. I'm pretty far behind SNE pace as is and if I continue what I'm doing currently, I'm either going to have to play fourteen hours a day to make it or make a third trip at the end of year for at least a month. More than that though, it's a much less stressful and faster way to make SNE. I don't anticipate I'll be able to make as much money as I have the last three to four years but I think the tradeoff of not being stressed out and having a lot of extra time off is worth it. To be frank, I'm pretty fed up with the whole high limit situation as is. The two biggest recreational players sit in the same seat every time and most of the regulars starting tables are always seated in the seat that guarantees them position on these players or start tables with the button. So without having all the tables open and constantly monitoring them, it's near impossible to start a game with the button or get position on these players. Combine that with the fact, they're often playing short sessions and changing tables, it's one big headache and a costly headache at that.<br />
<br />
If I end up sticking with this plan, I should be able to earn about 200k-240k VPPs in a month and be done by September. This would give me an extra month to relax and really focus on the high limit games if I decide I want to. At that point, I can have all the tables open, be able to get good seats, and not be distracted with other games since I'll just be focusing on those. I also can 2-3 table those games and really hone in and play my best game as opposed to multitabling, lobby watching, and constantly trying to shuffle tables in and out.<br />
<br />
That's the plan anyway. I will have an update in a month or so with how it's going.<br />
<br />
Good luck at the tables everyone.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-41998187620009231282014-03-14T19:56:00.001-07:002014-03-14T19:59:56.532-07:00Argentina In The BooksIt's been a really frustrating start to the year:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDdq8o0EEROnu-qBOAjb3hYSz_xd_pgb0fUqHpEDsBqxnkm3_g9C6NL0TtEFpSKVjdw2esOPOsg7notToCXrhxHNPZ5IOXsabaovJ4XsaIxh46xTn-1KttkEOopiVWsa8Alzu6KAtEz8s/s1600/$.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDdq8o0EEROnu-qBOAjb3hYSz_xd_pgb0fUqHpEDsBqxnkm3_g9C6NL0TtEFpSKVjdw2esOPOsg7notToCXrhxHNPZ5IOXsabaovJ4XsaIxh46xTn-1KttkEOopiVWsa8Alzu6KAtEz8s/s1600/$.JPG" height="217" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikAR8Id1RA-Z2PeZgURipTXG-dvhnTjtNPDGZJUpB0a2L6TicnOLrSnVyR-HhTKC-GBCT06pM-HWkxIh5L_vM2wT1BsZo1WfPbEZziGlEtKnlwo3AWmn64it5tJ2qfkzGO0OsfWTRPZXE/s1600/BB.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikAR8Id1RA-Z2PeZgURipTXG-dvhnTjtNPDGZJUpB0a2L6TicnOLrSnVyR-HhTKC-GBCT06pM-HWkxIh5L_vM2wT1BsZo1WfPbEZziGlEtKnlwo3AWmn64it5tJ2qfkzGO0OsfWTRPZXE/s1600/BB.JPG" height="223" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjem9Vw4EwbJwrgolVRs4SsVSEwT74ZzDn-F0IPGB6HU-OvZ6YPbhxuQijQL4MzFuNsnIyh7og8el8oPfHn1FiJVE2JxGfMTeRZDKHXYbWuT4d3XQcjHve8Cn8_XrNG1EbpTDFPhLQuUjE/s1600/PT.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjem9Vw4EwbJwrgolVRs4SsVSEwT74ZzDn-F0IPGB6HU-OvZ6YPbhxuQijQL4MzFuNsnIyh7og8el8oPfHn1FiJVE2JxGfMTeRZDKHXYbWuT4d3XQcjHve8Cn8_XrNG1EbpTDFPhLQuUjE/s1600/PT.JPG" height="97" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
This is about as bad of a stretch of stake variance as I've had since playing high limits. Basically all my winrates are reversed from the last few years. It seemed like every time I sat down to play this month, regardless of what stakes I was playing, I was always getting crushed at whatever table was my highest limit. The last few weeks in particular were tough to stomach. It'd been a while, probably a year or so, since I've run that bad. I think I got a little too comfortable after running well for the last half of last year and forgot just how bad you can run at this game.<br />
<br />
My win rate isn't too far off of what it normally is so there isn't much cause for concern. That said I don't feel like I've played well at any point this year. I'm really struggling with motivation and as a result have put in about half the volume I normally do. I'm setting myself up for a near impossible grind at the end of this year so it's entirely possible I don't make SNE.<br />
<br />
I'm headed back to the US tomorrow. I'm planning on doing some studying while home that I neglected this past fall. After getting home, it's off to Vegas for some much needed fun with friends and then it'll most likely be off to Costa Rica. It's looking like I'll be in Costa Rica from April to October. I'll have an update when I get there.<br />
<br />
Good luck at the tables everyone.<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-81184424343245385422014-02-28T16:36:00.000-08:002014-02-28T16:45:30.059-08:00End to a Frustrating FebruaryAt first glance it looks like a pretty good month:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4W_ww7QFYbDnwmXivqONYSRPJ-HYb2JKLM4zlHtOhUxAsbuqXlCQoy5CHVNe-FaSMp514zLy4kRbQlANbkpFHBjKSHzt7FPjiiqgmshwBkHO1H4VgbooD2b7hTeEbhYQSMnfeiYtyWkI/s1600/PTBB.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4W_ww7QFYbDnwmXivqONYSRPJ-HYb2JKLM4zlHtOhUxAsbuqXlCQoy5CHVNe-FaSMp514zLy4kRbQlANbkpFHBjKSHzt7FPjiiqgmshwBkHO1H4VgbooD2b7hTeEbhYQSMnfeiYtyWkI/s1600/PTBB.JPG" height="220" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
But the reality is:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioeIT4UkXxe797FuF3ps2ETarJxo5MAyt_jlNzr6ztXRPYCY1zvFEPIXcITUwk8b4INLuovfEnWcoe4h2FyIJgsqhG6Xd6l0n42oRXO1e7xYKvYAk6kgySrAbSn4Ef70TC_vDGeJZTiho/s1600/PT$.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioeIT4UkXxe797FuF3ps2ETarJxo5MAyt_jlNzr6ztXRPYCY1zvFEPIXcITUwk8b4INLuovfEnWcoe4h2FyIJgsqhG6Xd6l0n42oRXO1e7xYKvYAk6kgySrAbSn4Ef70TC_vDGeJZTiho/s1600/PT$.JPG" height="220" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcym-E71I8CtAkptT2h7Uhk3XcEvcULd5njtzwpeyhYpfVR9PL-SLYdznXe3HvF4u7qo9AzvuZMuWNFdu5S6Tfu9GP24bLeTYeg9oEdWXJJP9cPi8D1-cV8LAZIJc5q28NXF7lYte-sd4/s1600/PT.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcym-E71I8CtAkptT2h7Uhk3XcEvcULd5njtzwpeyhYpfVR9PL-SLYdznXe3HvF4u7qo9AzvuZMuWNFdu5S6Tfu9GP24bLeTYeg9oEdWXJJP9cPi8D1-cV8LAZIJc5q28NXF7lYte-sd4/s1600/PT.JPG" height="100" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I went through a similar stretch to this about two years ago, even worse if I remember right so it's just a matter of playing through it. On the bright side, I'm beating 10/20 for a change!<br />
<br />
Besides being frustrated, it's been a pretty perplexing start to the year for me. I've been really unmotivated and haven't been playing a lot of hands. The perplexing part is that I don't feel like I've played well overall but I also don't feel like I've run well and somehow I'm at 1.34 BB/100 after my first 50K hands. That scares me to some degree because if my sense that I've played poorly is correct, I could be in a for an extended downswing if I don't get my game in gear quickly.<br />
<br />
I'm still in Bariloche (Patagonia) and will be here for another couple weeks. Then it's back the US to do taxes and my annual Vegas trip with friends and then it'll be off again in early April to play. I still haven't decided whether I'm going for SNE, I'm pretty far behind pace at this point and not sure I could finish before September without playing some insane hours which I really don't want to do. But it's also possible I make an extra trip this year and finish in December.<br />
<br />
And before I forget since I've promised my friend I'd give him a shout out here. To anyone that sports bet I highly recommend signing up for the service below. Anthony is possibly the best unknown NBA handicapper in the world. I don't say that lightly, I've followed dozens of handicappers, tracked hundreds of others and have been sports betting seriously for five years now.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.sweetjones55.com/">http://www.sweetjones55.com/</a><br />
<br />
And he's being tracked by a reputable independent monitor here:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=c45467016f6cf879&id=documents&resid=C45467016F6CF879%21150&app=Excel&authkey=!AK0XvD7fyoQ3Q7M&">https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=c45467016f6cf879&id=documents&resid=C45467016F6CF879%21150&app=Excel&authkey=!AK0XvD7fyoQ3Q7M&</a><br />
<br />
Good luck at the tables everyone.<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-57798287408535699402014-01-31T16:38:00.001-08:002014-01-31T17:33:06.289-08:00January in the Books and Bariloche BoundI barely staved off my first losing month at poker in nine years. Going into today, it was about 98% to happen and I just ran insanely hot at high limits. I didn't play a whole lot this month and am pretty happy with the results overall considering how rusty I was to start and the fact I was sick the first week in Argentina.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-Y5Ly7Cvi7vohTydnZibPly525ftfFWcbwSKgHBupXYZmrWaay-VdPgddAFTTr3lI0LmOqSK4y95JlxDniXNE2BxXzZVKN5ldISwpiJxInsKzoIDtRna8xDjAHWWnD2fAyGnMAvUM_o/s1600/JanPoker.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-Y5Ly7Cvi7vohTydnZibPly525ftfFWcbwSKgHBupXYZmrWaay-VdPgddAFTTr3lI0LmOqSK4y95JlxDniXNE2BxXzZVKN5ldISwpiJxInsKzoIDtRna8xDjAHWWnD2fAyGnMAvUM_o/s1600/JanPoker.PNG" height="98" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I'm starting to feel a lot more comfortable at the tables and feel like I'm back to about 90% of where I was when I left last fall. It's always a scary feeling to start back up after an extended layoff, I feel pretty lost for the first couple thousand hands and am left wondering if I'm ever going to remember how to play. But slowly it's come back and I think my thought process is pretty much where it needs to be at this point. I need to start ramping up the volume or I'm setting myself up for another 12 hours a day/7 days a week grind at the end of the summer that I don't want to have happen.<br />
<br />
We're off to Bariloche tomorrow, our 3rd and final destination in Argentina. I'm really looking forward to this place, it'll be the nicest of the places we've stayed here and away from the hustle and far bustle of the city. Here's a pic of the apartment:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGU_GB9vJ5EHtFkSFztuZ-NGqJO8T3Bd712o-KvwzudDomztZ0Ra4yu7TwVuYjsNfVczp8Y64LVGcXz1ftL_5pNz0wMquH2Qp8F2QqqWIASluWCOG29YZae1oRqdTaM9_46zc9psx3dgk/s1600/Bariloche+Apt.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGU_GB9vJ5EHtFkSFztuZ-NGqJO8T3Bd712o-KvwzudDomztZ0Ra4yu7TwVuYjsNfVczp8Y64LVGcXz1ftL_5pNz0wMquH2Qp8F2QqqWIASluWCOG29YZae1oRqdTaM9_46zc9psx3dgk/s1600/Bariloche+Apt.jpeg" height="232" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I'll very likely be sitting on that couch with the table pulled up and monitor and laptop on top of it. I'll try to post some more pics when we get there.<br />
<br />
Good luck to everyone at the tables this month.Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-88019497203457424082014-01-21T15:47:00.000-08:002014-01-21T15:47:58.488-08:00BA Trip Report with PicsHere are some random thoughts on BA:<br />
<br />
Buenos Aires has been OK for me so far. I have been really sick the last 3 days so I haven't had a chance to get out too much. We're in Recoleta at the moment and then moving to a different part of the city next week. And then it's off to a place much further south away from the hustle and bustle of the city.<br />
<br />
My first impressions of Argentines were people with class but also with gamble. Don't ask me how those impressions came about but that's what popped in my head. I may be getting the "gamble" from a very well known online Argentine player. Buenos Aires itself is very nice, heavily European influenced so a lot of nice architecture.<br />
<br />
Things here are very cheap since they've been in a financial crisis of sorts. In fact our hotel is exchanging Argentine Pesos for US Dollars at a rate of 8.5-1 when the going rate in the financial markets is 6.5-1. I'm still in disbelief over that. There are people on the street offering up to 10-1 but the higher the rate being offered, the more likely there is to be counterfeit money involved so it's probably best to stick with exchanging at reputable places.<br />
<br />
On the subject of counterfeit money, one of the big tourist scams is taxi drivers switching your $100 bills (Equivalent to about 12 bucks USD) with counterfeit money when you pay, then acting like you gave it to them and refusing to accept it. Apparently there's a lot of pick-pocketing that goes on here too though I don't think so much where we're staying.<br />
<br />
We've been out to three restaurants so far and the food was good to excellent at all of them, so high marks there.<br />
<br />
Here are some pics. my wife took. I'll do my best to post these wherever we end up travelling.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigl0Q_MGZzSWteb38aYy312WKmxB8LLddlX2s_pMcbKpLJZv9CytfN8IPMrhVzhInxwxuW5ruB184bCol9p6oVWXl2_mlc4FTTf8AQaef-6x-1jZWL5NiYW7Zn2ym2wZKO4nH8G0WRQNo/s1600/DSC_0357+(2).JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigl0Q_MGZzSWteb38aYy312WKmxB8LLddlX2s_pMcbKpLJZv9CytfN8IPMrhVzhInxwxuW5ruB184bCol9p6oVWXl2_mlc4FTTf8AQaef-6x-1jZWL5NiYW7Zn2ym2wZKO4nH8G0WRQNo/s1600/DSC_0357+(2).JPG" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCtfzlNeheBmYzyF0Bjjxfn3abLeVcLcX8-Si6_uHLiIGPQcQawQoavnAMNZiNtNs4U9SY8bah2Id79LQZcWhUiInJuzeeDcrxBi68hfPPYhofTyzeJz9scixGPtESkbV_6K7zqm3PKF4/s1600/DSC_0356+(2).JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCtfzlNeheBmYzyF0Bjjxfn3abLeVcLcX8-Si6_uHLiIGPQcQawQoavnAMNZiNtNs4U9SY8bah2Id79LQZcWhUiInJuzeeDcrxBi68hfPPYhofTyzeJz9scixGPtESkbV_6K7zqm3PKF4/s1600/DSC_0356+(2).JPG" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPGoGGHUIeCdXy0uHHVIT8EwrS37Eq9YRTAxvKMEDVItA5A2jQ3-uP5PcgVtohVi_GPmianyAR-ovbAfGzEJaYquc0yYQAY1W84odkAqrLmv-Cg7paaG7OcLV5W7BTekUxXjZa4-1aZ7M/s1600/DSC_0355+(2).JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPGoGGHUIeCdXy0uHHVIT8EwrS37Eq9YRTAxvKMEDVItA5A2jQ3-uP5PcgVtohVi_GPmianyAR-ovbAfGzEJaYquc0yYQAY1W84odkAqrLmv-Cg7paaG7OcLV5W7BTekUxXjZa4-1aZ7M/s1600/DSC_0355+(2).JPG" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsDPL3SQz7G70w8F3ZyxrnAZszRHhao4mrkESbjKgl-6PfDU_-M1a72gdPAgFKKKNLSiAjsDC57IJUDDjxHpy43Ubmz6tmgWuYqVtLstEZQhrc_S2PviqonLKbw5nH-g1Q3es33mrj_n0/s1600/DSC_0354+(2).JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsDPL3SQz7G70w8F3ZyxrnAZszRHhao4mrkESbjKgl-6PfDU_-M1a72gdPAgFKKKNLSiAjsDC57IJUDDjxHpy43Ubmz6tmgWuYqVtLstEZQhrc_S2PviqonLKbw5nH-g1Q3es33mrj_n0/s1600/DSC_0354+(2).JPG" height="400" width="265" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilDN4ATewx0LdHaIOHNmWfJnDItSj5uwAMxefp8QHzngSFohgEHGzCov2ucfgkIOWuLFWjA68krH4Yd7Zxc3FGo1LpOBD-axXcHcJZ2QtpqB_DgYOtkBlSBcxXeuOLAz0zy9r7AuAdKlI/s1600/DSC_0342+(2).JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilDN4ATewx0LdHaIOHNmWfJnDItSj5uwAMxefp8QHzngSFohgEHGzCov2ucfgkIOWuLFWjA68krH4Yd7Zxc3FGo1LpOBD-axXcHcJZ2QtpqB_DgYOtkBlSBcxXeuOLAz0zy9r7AuAdKlI/s1600/DSC_0342+(2).JPG" height="400" width="263" /></a></div>
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-87461501087291745972014-01-16T16:06:00.001-08:002014-01-16T16:06:53.223-08:00Back to Grinding in ArgentinaQuick Update:<br />
<br />
I'm in Buenos Aires and back playing poker. I played today for a few hours and as expected was very rusty. I've come back from extended layoffs two or three times now so I sort of know what to expect. It should only be a week or so before I'm back to playing at full capacity (hopefully).<br />
<br />
I will try to post some pictures of the places I'm staying at this year. The place we're at now is in downtown Buenos Aires and is nothing too special so no pics on this one. But we're moving to a different part of the city in about 11 days and then moving much further south to a place overlooking a lake at the base of the Andes. I'll definitely put some pics up of the last place.<br />
<br />
Also worth mentioning, I may not go for SNE this year. There's a greater chance this year than any other, I'd put it at about 25% right now that I don't go for it. I have some other income opportunities I've been working hard at and depending upon how they pan out will determine whether I go for SNE. I'd say it's inevitable though that my SNE chase days are coming to an end - this very well could be my last year. My ultimate goal as to cut way down on the poker I play, maybe a few months out of the year.<br />
<br />
Good luck to everyone at the tables.<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-54168414210689481702013-11-14T07:27:00.003-08:002013-11-14T07:27:56.511-08:00CoachingI apologize for not posting this sooner. It does not look like I'll be offering coaching this year. I'm pretty wrapped up in some other things right now and don't have the time or energy for it. It's possible that could change, especially by next year, and I will be sure to post here with any changes.<br />
<br />
Good luck everyone.<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-68579151075138325062013-10-15T09:53:00.002-07:002013-10-15T09:53:59.433-07:002013 Statistical Year in ReviewI don't know why I enjoy doing this so much, I guess I really like statistics. It does provide some insight to where my money is coming from, the variance involved, and changes in the LHE environment.<br />
<br />
<br />
The first number listed is from 2012, the second from 2013 comes after the slash, and if there's a third, it's the cumulative.<br />
<br />
<b>General:</b><br />
<br />
Hands Played: 510471/519500<br />
Money Won: $296971/$349061<br />
Rakeback Earned: ~$120,000/$120000<br />
Total Money Won:$416971/$469061<br />
Money Won Per Hand:$0.82/$0.90<br />
Total Hours Played: 2082/2235<br />
$/Hour: $200.27/$210<br />
Average Hours Played per Week: 58/60<br />
<br />
<b>% of Hands Played By Limit (2012 #'s don't include some hands played in December): </b><br />
<br />
5/10: .4%/1.31%<br />
10/20: <b> </b>24.4%/30.61%<br />
15/30: 29.5%/27.14%<br />
30/60: 24%/30.61%<br />
50/10: 12.4%/12.36%<br />
100/200: 6.5%/3.38%<br />
200/400: 2.6%/1.6%<br />
<br />
30/60+: 45.5%/40.92%<br />
<br />
<b>Win Rate by Limit in Big Bets/100 Hands. Standard Error assume Standard Deviation of 19</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
5/10: (2.64)/2.02 Cum:.0.81 Standard Error: 1.98 BB/100<br />
10/20 .79/.08 Cum 0.39 Standard Error: .36 BB/100<br />
15/30 1.27/.49 Cum: .90 Standard Error: .35 BB/100<br />
30/60 .85/2.07 Cum: 1.44 Standard Error: .38 BB/100<br />
50/100 .84/1.52 Cum: 1.17 Standard Error: .53 BB/100<br />
100/200: .88/2.03 Cum: 1.25 Standard Error: .82 BB/100<br />
200/400: .25/.1 Cum 0.2 Standard Error: 1.26 BB/100<br />
<br />
<b>Average $ Won Per Hand By Limit Including Rakeback:</b><br />
<br />
10/20: $0.39/$0.23 Cum: .$0.30<br />
15/30: $0.64/$0.38 Cum: $0.52<br />
30/60: $0.84/$1.47 Cum: $1.15<br />
50/100: $1.06/$1.78 Cum: $1.41<br />
100/200: $1.86/$4.33 Cum: $2.65<br />
200/400: $3.15/$0.69 Cum: $2.25<br />
<br />
<b>Streaks:</b><br />
<br />
Two biggest Downswings in BB's:<br />
<br />
860 BB's (In 13K Hands!)/ 730 BB's in ~30K hands<br />
690 BB's (In 31K Hands)/ 680 BB's in ~55K hands<br />
<br />
Biggest Upswing: 2400 BB's over 130K hands (No downswing more than 250 BB's over that stretch)<br />
Biggest Upswing 2013: 3900 BB's over 350K hands (No downswing more than 350 BB's) *Amazing good luck<br />
<br />
Longest Breakeven Stretch: 173,000 Hands / ~160K hands<br />
<br />
Biggest Downswings in $ (Excluding Rakeback):<br />
<br />
102K over 30K hands / 68K in 27K hands<br />
70K over 24K hands / 50K in 13K hands<br />
<br />
Biggest Upswings in $ (Excluding Rakeback):<br />
<br />
203K over 169K Hands (No downswing more than 28K over that stretch) /143K over 120K hands<br />
98K over 47K hands / 110K over 75K hands<br />
<br />
Longest Breakeven Stretch:<br />
<br />
238,000 Hands / 159,000 Hands (I actually won $8K over this stretch)<br />
<br />
Misc:<br />
<br />
Approximate money lost to power outages and internet disconnects:$16,000 / <$1,000<br />
Approximate money paid/to be paid in taxes before deductions: $175,000/ / $197,0000<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWneWAJPl2XVqF3TNQpkjkEOYqcDwn8Y5nr_-mqIYbsrijHKDZajxp67k_BO2D2yasoTRs9eiJtS1lxhALztMNzgWIeHDrmR1F9Wp7BuU7VsRTvqLb9_egpDZhW5chaxFREeYzLFk4d04/s1600/2013$.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWneWAJPl2XVqF3TNQpkjkEOYqcDwn8Y5nr_-mqIYbsrijHKDZajxp67k_BO2D2yasoTRs9eiJtS1lxhALztMNzgWIeHDrmR1F9Wp7BuU7VsRTvqLb9_egpDZhW5chaxFREeYzLFk4d04/s400/2013$.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipEYV2vrWB71C3bunJoivhbGVm5-b2r2ubJJupcdfbRtDT4VpiK6wBehvvnrgkuh57jP3hRsJKYCQvZ-V-ynSSu5wn9_R6UiMEgjUEZhLdDT7ZUMk33zu5COQyPv0JX7lAU5GzO5w2pk4/s1600/2013BB.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipEYV2vrWB71C3bunJoivhbGVm5-b2r2ubJJupcdfbRtDT4VpiK6wBehvvnrgkuh57jP3hRsJKYCQvZ-V-ynSSu5wn9_R6UiMEgjUEZhLdDT7ZUMk33zu5COQyPv0JX7lAU5GzO5w2pk4/s400/2013BB.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-30275181629938156642013-10-14T09:52:00.001-07:002013-10-14T10:05:50.122-07:005 In a Row!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA4o1rLjvnri6bHewrQX7S39hcRgVsyY9JL-cmADrn33eQUPeAqf0NFjtlIbawq2DyZ66nE161nFQJhvlWHvB6_fjf-_VLh1zvrd29-DsI2tAMyjURoCi7JtDG3I5_WB0WJWrCzM0n_7g/s1600/SNE.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA4o1rLjvnri6bHewrQX7S39hcRgVsyY9JL-cmADrn33eQUPeAqf0NFjtlIbawq2DyZ66nE161nFQJhvlWHvB6_fjf-_VLh1zvrd29-DsI2tAMyjURoCi7JtDG3I5_WB0WJWrCzM0n_7g/s400/SNE.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Rejoice mid/high stakes limit HE players, I won't be sitting at all your tables for twelve hours a day at least for another two to three months. I'm hoping to take the rest of the year off and come back in mid January but that's dependent on how my other gambling endeavors go, mainly sports betting. There's a chance I may make a 1-2 week to Toronto to visit friends and play, otherwise it'll be next year.<br />
<br />
I exceeded my expectations this year in terms of money won but my win rate decreased slightly from last year. I still think there's quite a bit of room for improvement in my game though. I put minimal effort into my game but plan on doing some work/studying when I get back home. My biggest strength by far this year was emotional control. The number of decisions I made that were influenced by emotion were less than any other year. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say less than 1 out of every 1000 had any emotion involved. So I'm happy there but not too happy with the overall progress of my game. I also was extremely unhealthy for the last five months of this year. I didn't work out a single time. That's the biggest thing I need to change next year.<br />
<br />
I will likely do a statistical review like I did last year and compare the two years. Also starting next year I think I'm going to start tracking things daily like money won/lost, big bets won/lost, along with things like how much water I drank that day, whether I worked out, and my general mindset. I'd like to get a gauge on just how much these things matter. I'm not sure even a year worth of data is going to tell me too much but eventually I think the data could prove useful. It also will commit me to staying hydrated, working out, and paying attention to my mental state. And out of curiosity, I'm interested in the type of swings that can occur on a daily basis. This year alone, I believe I had my winning-est day ever, winning 371 BB's along with three of biggest losing days ever: I lost around 250 BB's each of those days. It's likely just variance at play but there seemed to be many more extreme days than usual.<br />
<br />
This is what my year ended up looking like. I'll be thrilled if I'm as successful next year.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl1AG2708yuqwzAIOUVNEBLVLOUeOoBvaeoWAbRiCLpf06njvZM_kLun9P3TVTM3liMpEp227MZSkm7iSVtgLWdRMfSSmnNaVlPulNoCo7mjJkUYC6mypCo4S-S8GwYMjCp-hZC2W1lyA/s1600/2014.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl1AG2708yuqwzAIOUVNEBLVLOUeOoBvaeoWAbRiCLpf06njvZM_kLun9P3TVTM3liMpEp227MZSkm7iSVtgLWdRMfSSmnNaVlPulNoCo7mjJkUYC6mypCo4S-S8GwYMjCp-hZC2W1lyA/s400/2014.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Good luck to everyone still chasing SNE.Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-66616263113114451292013-09-30T20:33:00.001-07:002013-10-01T11:24:01.339-07:00September in the Books and SNE ThoughtsDespite ending the month on about a 250 BB/10K downswing, September ended up being my best month of the year and third best since Black Friday. This coming after my worst month in nine years. I guess that's what statisticians are referring to when they talk about "regression to the mean".<br />
<br />
I ended up winning 76K plus 18K in bonuses. I also finished 6th in the WCOOP limit event for about 6K so it just barely ended up being a 6 figure month for only the second time post BF. Congratulations to my friend Javier (Cosi on Stars) for winning the tournament. He's a super tough high-stakes player and one of the very few people I hate seeing at my table (especially at the end of a tournament playing for tens of thousands of dollars!)<br />
<br />
I think I played very well for a couple weeks in the middle of the month but mostly I just ran good, particularly at high limits (30/60-100/200):<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZuU8owkgXIybKZllk4GfZyTuOMZEFJqA5Z6uY_lII0A6WQvLSivrKybXYTTTEwVQBHylNzYHQybo6xDgw1pTkDco6X2Go6yQCfd8LRB5BDqsh9sNtxdnc-4_Hn6UEPuQQqSrsx0lGwwA/s1600/SeptPT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZuU8owkgXIybKZllk4GfZyTuOMZEFJqA5Z6uY_lII0A6WQvLSivrKybXYTTTEwVQBHylNzYHQybo6xDgw1pTkDco6X2Go6yQCfd8LRB5BDqsh9sNtxdnc-4_Hn6UEPuQQqSrsx0lGwwA/s400/SeptPT.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Enough about results. I'm nearing the end of the year with two weeks to go and am up to 940K VPPs. This will be the fifth consecutive year reaching SNE so I thought I'd share some thoughts and tips regarding the journey.<br />
<br />
One of the more important tips I can give is to set a VPP goal every day. Poker Stars has a VPP Status Bar that can be added under options that will appear in the lobby and show your progress through the day. By doing this, it takes the emphasis off of results and places them on playing hands (earning VPPs). My primary goal every day is to reach my VPP goal and everything else becomes secondary. There's a sense of accomplishment at the end of day regardless of my results if I've reached my VPP goal.<br />
<br />
Without setting this type of goal, I think people have a tendency to put in volume based on their results. Everyone is different in this regard but I'll give you a couple of examples from friends of mine. One of them puts in lots of volume when he's running well but when he hits a losing streak, he takes days and sometimes weeks off. Another of my friends is the opposite. If he wins a lot of money, he loses his drive and motivation and stops putting in the volume. I identify more with the latter but for a different reason. I have a tendency to play more when I'm losing. In the back of my mind, I know that I'm eventually going to snap out of the losing streak and run well. I feel the more I can play, the sooner (in terms of time) I'll get out of the losing streak. But again, setting a daily VPP goal alleviates some of this.<br />
<br />
Another important tip that is incredibly simple to do: stay hydrated. It's impossible to quantify how much it's cost me not to drink enough water but it's well into the tens of thousands of dollars at this point. There have been many, many days where I've woken up and downed cups of coffee and energy drinks and found myself unable to think straight. Almost inevitably, I'm dehydrated and have been playing for hours without realizing it. As soon as I drink a few bottles of water, my mind clears and my level of play rises. The best way I've found to avoid this is to get into a routine where every day when I sit down to play, I grab two bottles of water and put them beside me. <br />
<br />
I say this all the time but do not underestimate variance. Without fail every year on Poker Stars I see decent players run exceptionally well and start playing above their heads in terms of stakes and also in terms of game selection. And without fail, these people disappear within a few months.<br />
<br />
I tend to get more careless and less focused when I'm in the midst of a huge winning streak. This has been one of my faults over the years and I worked hard this year to make sure I was giving one hundred percent effort regardless of how I was running.<br />
<br />
I also see great players run incredibly bad for long stretches and their games fall apart. Some of these people never recover and quit poker, others take many months or years before their games recover. These aren't just average regulars it happens to, it's some of the very best regulars. Myself and other high volume players may have an advantage in this regard. Imagine you're a high-stakes player with a win-rate of .5 BB/100 that plays ten thousand hands a month. And imagine you hit a seventy or hundred thousand hand stretch like I did last month. You're going to experience at least a seven to ten month stretch losing money. Maybe you take time off as well because you're so discouraged by the results and maybe your game deteriorates as well because you start second-guessing everything your doing and your win rate is no longer .5 BB/100. Now the losing streak can last well over a year and you very well may give up or try another form of poker.<br />
<br />
In summary, don't get too high on yourself or get careless when things are going great. And don't underestimate how bad things can go. I've had several 100K hand break-even stretches both in terms of money and big bets, and several 600-900 BB downswings over the last couple years.<br />
<br />
Another piece of advice is to eliminate distractions as much as possible. This is something I've known for years and done a very good job of but for some unknown reason last month, completely disregarded. Table chat tends to be a big distraction for me and I think potentially can be for any regular that's putting in a lot of volume. Several times a month, players (regulars and rec alike) will type some sort of disparaging comments towards me (I see this happen to many players). My natural tendency is to respond and defend myself but all that does is further upset me when the comments escalate, and further distract me when I'm trying to type and retort while multitabling. It's best to either turn chat off or completely ignore it.<br />
<br />
Something I don't really have the luxury of doing, having to make SNE in less than nine months, but that I highly recommend is taking time off. Whether it's a certain part of the day or a certain day of the week, it's extremely beneficial to get away from the computer and do something completely unrelated to poker.<br />
<br />
I've been playing 12-14 hours a day now, every single day, for almost three months straight. There are quite a few damaging side-effects to this. One is that I wake up so many days, completely unmotivated to play poker. I'd rather be doing anything else but playing poker. These are the days where I'm just going through the motions, putting very little mental effort into my game, and trying to earn my VPPs for the day. When I was in Playa Del Carmen earlier this year I made an effort to go out several times a week and I felt so much more refreshed and motivated at the tables. It really can't be understated how beneficial this is for your game. For those of you that have a full twelve months to make SNE, I'd suggest planning out your days and weeks so that you have adequate balance in your life while still being able to attain SNE.<br />
<br />
Another very strange side effect I thought I'd share is sometimes during the middle of the day, my mind just forces me to stop playing and to lie down. I try to take a nap whenever this happens but I'm not able to fall asleep. I close my eyes, and tables keep flashing in front of me with decisions to make. I'm not in a dream state where I'm getting aces at every table or rivering people in big pots. It's an incredibly realistic state where I'm being dealt random hands at four tables, random flops, and the hands are playing out in different ways with me winning some and losing some. My attention is constantly being diverted from table to table to make decisions exactly as it is when I'm playing. This usually lasts for about 30-40 minutes before my mind finally settles down and is able to focus on something else. Unfortunately this is normally when I jump out of bed and head immediately to my computer to play more.<br />
<br />
I read Dusty Schmidt's blog post a while back that talks a little about this: <a href="http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-blogs/51-dusty-leatherass-schmidt/entries/561296-this-is-my-brain-on-poker">http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-blogs/51-dusty-leatherass-schmidt/entries/561296-this-is-my-brain-on-poker</a><br />
<br />
I'm not really convinced I'm going to die of a stroke before age 50 as Dusty was told but I don't think it can be very healthy either. And there most certainly are short-term effects where I'm basically a vegetable for an hour or so after a long session.<br />
<br />
Another side-effect to playing so many hours is that my ability to think, and hence my level of play, fluctuates quite a bit during the day. It's very rare that I go an entire day thinking clearly and playing well. Often I'll wake up in a fog and it'll take me several hours (and cups of coffee) before I'm tuned in and playing well. Sometimes during the middle of the day, I'll hit a two to three hour stretch where I'm very low on energy and unfocused. I've paid a lot more attention to my mental state this year and have made adjustments to the stakes I'm playing based on it. If I wake up in a fog, which happens often, I won't play any games above 50-100 and even with 50-100, I'll only play in extremely good games. Likewise if I feel my energy and focus fading during the day, I'll trade some of my higher limit tables for lower limit tables. The key with this is to really be in tune with your state of mind. I almost have to step outside of myself sometimes and assess my mental state and playing ability and then make adjustments based on that.<br />
<br />
There's much more to say about the SNE journey but as you might of guessed I played twelve hours today and am totally exhausted. If anyone has questions, feel free to post in the comments and I will answer them.<br />
<br />
Two weeks to go!<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-88962178861930789512013-08-31T20:25:00.000-07:002013-08-31T20:25:37.011-07:00A Month to ForgetAugust ended up being my worst month in 8 years as a professional poker player. I barely staved off a losing month, coming out slightly ahead after rakeback. The scariest part to me is I don't think I ran that bad. On a scale of 1-10, maybe a 3. If I had to rate my play on a scale of 1-10, it would be about a 2 or 3. I was totally unfocused, unmotivated, and distracted throughout the month. One major distraction was the 2+2 forums and I've stopped posting there as a result. I think I had about 500 posts in 6 years there and I probably have over 500 this year. I've known all along that posting there offers very little benefit so it was pretty stupid of me to start posting there again. I've also shut the chat off of most players and am just trying to focus on the games.<br />
<br />
One the VPP front, I'm up to 800K. I've got a month and a half left and need to average about 4500/day. One of my best friends is coming to visit for 3 days so I'm actually going to have to do closer to 5K/day on the days he's not here. I'm not too concerned about making SNE in time, but I'm very concerned with finding my motivation and focus. Usually a bad losing streak is what jolts me and motivates me but despite my worst month ever, I really didn't go through any big downswings. It was just back and forth all month as you can see in the graphs below.<br />
<br />
Anyway, not in a blogging mood. I'm pretty frustrated with poker. What I really need is a break, unfortunately that's not going to happen (thank you DOJ/Black Friday).<br />
<br />
Good Luck at the tables everyone.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCSg39GtvRz0I9QK5DFv9SK7CKXw0SPH-rDVxU-bidPBS1ki4CXRSEIHvWZBH0Thh_2QP1Ka2k1uqD-XJhFLfmjfa0_CPKzlSVxhJ8Q7ARusPAcFFnboc9TdjzP6wJ9fHqGx2hu5GezKQ/s1600/AugustBB.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCSg39GtvRz0I9QK5DFv9SK7CKXw0SPH-rDVxU-bidPBS1ki4CXRSEIHvWZBH0Thh_2QP1Ka2k1uqD-XJhFLfmjfa0_CPKzlSVxhJ8Q7ARusPAcFFnboc9TdjzP6wJ9fHqGx2hu5GezKQ/s640/AugustBB.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg27YkYHXEiF6PALo7hYVSUKWPmkyq-bAYE4mK1AnhkUcOpHQ69u-ebPjkOlr67poztd-duDVngzungKNLv_ajyWL5tLTg5MLVl3LmKxB-Lxo_wQhEioTwYdU6pGyKOCpqHf1993JWcJeY/s1600/AugustPT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg27YkYHXEiF6PALo7hYVSUKWPmkyq-bAYE4mK1AnhkUcOpHQ69u-ebPjkOlr67poztd-duDVngzungKNLv_ajyWL5tLTg5MLVl3LmKxB-Lxo_wQhEioTwYdU6pGyKOCpqHf1993JWcJeY/s640/AugustPT.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-33299931326975389392013-08-06T20:56:00.001-07:002013-08-06T21:23:28.162-07:00Poker Stars Hall of Fame and A Look Back (With Results)I just earned my five millionth VPP and an induction into the <a href="http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/hall-of-fame/">Poker Stars Hall of Fame</a>. I haven't actually submitted my bio yet but I should be up shortly. According to the site, I'm the first exclusively fixed limit player to make it and the twenty-second player overall to earn at least five million VPPs. It's one of my biggest accomplishments as a poker player, a reflection of all my hard work and dedication, and something I'm very proud of.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTr0HkMbtqxARqEXS6oXi2q-dFoIDnVM5EjusryKv_DWZH9FVJs77kJZX3ZBRVXV3OzNl5HFdlsppuYBr7wBrJ1Ly2cZ8EHkpE5GPHmsgBzHE2l4z8-_h3Gm0fiKt1lwHbbT4acXt_Xa8/s1600/SNE.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="91" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTr0HkMbtqxARqEXS6oXi2q-dFoIDnVM5EjusryKv_DWZH9FVJs77kJZX3ZBRVXV3OzNl5HFdlsppuYBr7wBrJ1Ly2cZ8EHkpE5GPHmsgBzHE2l4z8-_h3Gm0fiKt1lwHbbT4acXt_Xa8/s400/SNE.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
I vividly remember the first night I started the SNE chase about four and a half years ago. I was sitting on a bed in a Las Vegas hotel room and opened four 10/20 tables. In fact, I have a picture of it that used to be my profile picture for this blog. I remember being very excited and possessing an incredible desire and motivation to play. <br />
<br />
Although I've been playing on Poker Stars for about eight years now, prior to my decision to go for SNE, the majority of my play was on Ultimate Bet, and prior to that, Party and Paradise Poker. I remember making the decision to leave the safety of my UB hosting job with 100% rakeback, and feeling very apprehensive about playing on Stars. Although I played in a lot of tough short-handed games against other hosts on UB, I wasn't really a 6-max player and I felt like I was going to have to practice very strict game selection to succeed. I think I was very fortunate the first year to run really well at 15/30 which initially was my highest limit. That allowed me move to 30/60 very quickly where I also ran fairly well.<br />
<br />
This is what my lifetime results on Stars have looked like:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMLEnwh2nqLnASIiuw2EdoA_AcRy9kIcehIWiu9jiCQuY1ZP5_5tCv8C3dNGCe_uxn4p9DOqzaWy4-cylDhbGoK8io39R4IezCVJID88fG9sbghAgruK5lVfPVFbyExbDNJS6NkI_UhxI/s1600/PTAll.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMLEnwh2nqLnASIiuw2EdoA_AcRy9kIcehIWiu9jiCQuY1ZP5_5tCv8C3dNGCe_uxn4p9DOqzaWy4-cylDhbGoK8io39R4IezCVJID88fG9sbghAgruK5lVfPVFbyExbDNJS6NkI_UhxI/s640/PTAll.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidSlnFa_fU3AvQvgdUzX_JvX3Xx-OKG6WzClTEfRRftMuKBhXveXmGnTx8BAhPjRWd6ORlfYI156AP1Yyi2Qsr2RAPrIQSst9CP7QntkAw_cmLViKlq3aba_lnuPkbHJZBhNOsc9SKnsE/s1600/StarsAll$.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidSlnFa_fU3AvQvgdUzX_JvX3Xx-OKG6WzClTEfRRftMuKBhXveXmGnTx8BAhPjRWd6ORlfYI156AP1Yyi2Qsr2RAPrIQSst9CP7QntkAw_cmLViKlq3aba_lnuPkbHJZBhNOsc9SKnsE/s640/StarsAll$.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFqMygVep0x2_U3WCkG26rnT0xy3YPDXJqYseGOlXeX9tEavTgwOgct_TFQdu1NRs6UZp8Yr_m9J_mq8YFakfZPEADOEZmqePy0PfEJrfBW_xa9raxKvdPxK-ewDQ38-jGRH9U1YeUgKA/s1600/BBAll.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFqMygVep0x2_U3WCkG26rnT0xy3YPDXJqYseGOlXeX9tEavTgwOgct_TFQdu1NRs6UZp8Yr_m9J_mq8YFakfZPEADOEZmqePy0PfEJrfBW_xa9raxKvdPxK-ewDQ38-jGRH9U1YeUgKA/s640/BBAll.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Looking at these results it looks like it's been a walk in the park but the reality is that nothing could be further from the truth. I've experienced countless 300-900 BB and 50K-100K downswings. The graphs don't come close to doing justice to just how wild of a roller coaster ride it's been.<br />
<br />
These graphs are something I will refer to anytime I'm in the midst of a downswing. In fact, that's something I've always done over the years. As miserable as some downswings can be, once they're put in their proper prospective, they don't seem nearly as bad.<br />
<br />
The thing I'm most proud of looking at my results is my specifically 6-handed play. I've averaged nearly 1 BB/100 hands for 1.2 million hands.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2PYRZWz98F6TtTylXLlQmR2wQugbV6sbp2Lfmt38qggkzC5R-5vhr4wEshA6HcHl2ZTbGI_E_0TlrcOgOtbTG2tJlpcMEcPtcWGrnPjwHERC_2OndakpxpipNFu64nNvSODkacgn4Tuk/s1600/PT+%23+of+Players.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2PYRZWz98F6TtTylXLlQmR2wQugbV6sbp2Lfmt38qggkzC5R-5vhr4wEshA6HcHl2ZTbGI_E_0TlrcOgOtbTG2tJlpcMEcPtcWGrnPjwHERC_2OndakpxpipNFu64nNvSODkacgn4Tuk/s640/PT+%23+of+Players.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
I've spent hundreds, if not thousands, of hours over the last five years working on my 6-max game. I remember towards the end of my hosting job at UB, where I was primarily a heads up and short handed player, looking at specifically 6-handed results and having a negative win rate. I sent an email to several other hosts asking to check their 6-handed results. Every one of them responded to say theirs was negative as well. This really jolted me and brought me to the realization that there was an enormous amount of room for improvement in our games. This is when I committed a lot of time and effort to studying preflop situations in PT and HEM, analyzing postflop decisions, and discussing hands and strategies with friends. And these are all things I do to this day and will likely do as long as I"m playing.<br />
<br />
Back to the present day, I had a great month last month, in fact I can't remember even having a single losing day. I ran exceptionally well and played equally as well. This month it feels like someone flipped a switch and I feel lost at the tables. I'm around even big bet wise and up a few thousand but I've had incredible difficulty focusing and even keeping track of the action. I've probably made more mistakes in six days then I did all of last month. I wish I had an explanation for this but I don't. This has happened to me a number of times over the last few years and I always seem to snap out of it. But it's always scary nonetheless. It's a really uneasy and strange feeling to go from playing my A game for an extended period to immediately playing my C game and not being able to find an easy way to snap out of it.<br />
<br />
I think the grind of playing ten hours a day, every single day, may have something to do with my lack of focus. I'm feeling pretty burnt out right at the moment. My brother is coming to visit me next week so I'm planning on taking some much needed time off from the tables. By time off, I mean playing five hours a day instead of ten hours a day. As ridiculous as that sounds, it will give me time to go to the beach, some restaurants, play tennis, etc. All things I've done very little of this trip. I'm up to about 700K VPPs and need to average around 4400 a day to be done by October 15th. It shouldn't be a problem but I need to find motivation and focus quickly.<br />
<br />
Good luck at the tables everyone.Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-16795372806249516292013-07-01T21:14:00.001-07:002013-07-01T21:25:04.919-07:00CoachingI've received a lot of emails and comments since mentioning that I may offer coaching this fall. The main obstacle in coaching is that I don't think it's worthwhile for me to be improve my direct competition, even at $500/HR. And the vast majority of people who can afford that price tag are going to fall under that category. So I've come up with a different possibility:<br />
<br />
What I'm thinking of doing is offering group coaching via Skype, conference call, or some other communication medium. I could coach approximately 5 people at a time and the price would be around $75/Hour per person. The students would be limited to micro, small, and medium stakes players. $5/$10 would be the highest limit a student could be playing to be eligible for coaching. <br />
<br />
There are a couple different coaching formats I'm envisioning and frankly I'm open to any ideas that people have. One format would be to have a question and answer hour where people take turns asking me questions. The questions could be based on any topic. They could be as broad as preflop play or as specific as what action to take on a specific street from a hand that was played <br />
<br />
Another possible format is to have a mutually agreed upon topic that we discuss, for example 3-betting or big blind defense, and I'd spend the hour talking about that and answering questions related to it. In addition to the hour, I would offer to answer one or two follow-up questions via email and be accessible in the future via email for the odd question here and there.<br />
<br />
None of this is set in stone by any means but I'd like to hear people's thoughts and get a feel for the type of interest. So please email me at tony.pirone@gmail.com or leave a comment in the comments section if you are interested. I will be home October 15th so if there's enough interest and I'm feeling up to doing it, the coaching would likely run from the end of October to the end of December. <br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-67500206365639290222013-06-30T17:55:00.003-07:002013-06-30T18:24:04.735-07:00June In The BooksJune ended up being a great month, my best of the year. Looking back at the previous thirty-six months, it ranked sixth in terms of money won and I believe second or third in terms of big bets won. I was up 1000 big bets after twenty-six thousand hands this month which I believe is the shortest amount of time I've ever reached 1000 BB's since playing on Stars. I was playing a lot of heads up earlier this month against several regulars including Jama-Dharma, whom I'm sure many of you are aware of our public feud. The added heads up hands were probably the single biggest contributor to that stretch, I ran at close to 10 BB/100. Considering how dead the high limit games were, I'm extremely happy and fortunate with the results - 61% of my hands came at 15/30 and lower.<br />
<br />
This will be the last month I post any results in my blog aside from posting losing streaks and perhaps an end of the year recap. I'm finding a lot of the regulars are employing my strategies against me and it's undoubtedly due to me making my success public. I've made three major changes to my game over the last year or so and there are several regulars now that have implemented the same or similar changes to their games. It's really quite frustrating because I put a lot of work and thought into my game and I almost feel like my ideas are being stolen. So I don't think it makes sense to keep publicly posting about my success and having people copy my strategies. I realize people are still going to copy my strategies regardless of whether I post results here but I do think it will help the situation somewhat over the long run.<br />
<br />
I've had several people either write in the comments or email me that they really enjoy reading about my downswings, my mental state during them, and fighting through them. So I will continue to post those along with my thoughts.<br />
<br />
On the VPP front, I'm up to about 535K and need to average 4400 a day for the rest of my time in Cabo. That should be very doable. I'm going to shoot for 5,000/day so that I have the flexibility to take time off if necessary.<br />
<br />
I hope everyone has a profitable July, good luck at the tables.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTbAEK48S5rK70Khq-j_9Ib4zWrLAmYkr6Vib7mJFa8ErNfXkmJV6tD316l-XmhEqxG8lJvo4gG4tSD14fvL5q-_budXLDjInEfHRpZzeNtJSfzHJvbYa0JDJS8_XknAmTVdBguOVzJDo/s1296/JuneBB.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTbAEK48S5rK70Khq-j_9Ib4zWrLAmYkr6Vib7mJFa8ErNfXkmJV6tD316l-XmhEqxG8lJvo4gG4tSD14fvL5q-_budXLDjInEfHRpZzeNtJSfzHJvbYa0JDJS8_XknAmTVdBguOVzJDo/s640/JuneBB.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSKmRRx97kcCch0QCPhHPc9NqI9b-ZyZXgujP9g99Vv7_JNex_ICbnPpkMSePlvpqkAjzwJUIwL1c6Pqb6YGGQt_XNZ4q36MAB0-_BHnFDbjfAf-W-WAewIa39SvNYstn4qEOjgYGKso/s1342/JunePT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSKmRRx97kcCch0QCPhHPc9NqI9b-ZyZXgujP9g99Vv7_JNex_ICbnPpkMSePlvpqkAjzwJUIwL1c6Pqb6YGGQt_XNZ4q36MAB0-_BHnFDbjfAf-W-WAewIa39SvNYstn4qEOjgYGKso/s640/JunePT.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-20371184312828247382013-06-23T19:18:00.001-07:002013-06-23T19:21:18.061-07:00Halfway HomeI mean that literally, I just earned my 500,000th VPP of the year and am halfway to heading back home to California and hopefully taking the rest of the year off. I've been on an incredible tear this month and am on pace to break my single month big bet record. As of today, I'm up about 1100 BB's and at one point was up close to 1300.<br />
<br />
This month in terms of games has been the slowest of the year. This is undoubtedly due to the World Series. Some good comes with this though as most of the top tier regulars aren't online and this certainly has contributed to my success this month.<br />
<br />
Looking back at the first half of the year, the games on a whole have been a lot more active than I anticipated. It's still nothing like it was even two years ago but given what I expected particularly after my post about the death of limit hold-em late last year, I'm quite encouraged. It's very fickle though, all it takes is for two or three of the higher volume recreational players to stop playing and suddenly the games are near dead.<br />
<br />
In terms of my play at the tables, I'm very happy overall with my game. I'm ahead of last year's pace in terms of money won and big bets won though still off my pace of two and three years ago but that's largely due to the lack of high limit games. My game has continued to evolve and improve particularly the mental side. I've had incredible emotional control all year and it's likely the single biggest contributor to my improved results.<br />
<br />
We've extended our stay in Cabo San Lucas until October 15th and I'm planning on making SuperNova Elite by then. I believe I have to average around 4600 VPPs a day which is about 500 per day less than I've averaged over the last six weeks. Barring the games completely drying up, I should be able to make it in time without much problem. I can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to that last three months of the year where I can play pool, relax, and not worry about grinding every day.<br />
<br />
On the subject of the end of the year, I am giving serious consideration to offering coaching this fall. The price will likely be $500/Hour and would include follow up conversations and emails in addition to an hour lesson. I haven't ironed out all the details yet and am not positive I want to make the commitment but it's more likely at this point than any point in the last few years. If anyone is interested in receiving coaching, please email me at tony.pirone@gmail.com. I'd like to get an idea of the type of interest before I make a decision. My guess is that I could take on two or three students a week. Ideally I'd like to work with serious, dedicated players who love the game and want to take their game to the next level. If I do decide to offer coaching, I will be sure to post here with all the details of what it would include.<br />
<br />
Good luck at the tables everyone. And this is what my year has looked like so far, I will be thrilled if the second half is as successful.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd0N7c8dfOwlzBwzx4FL9yu9-tsxC1DBcQf8xFMnU3xpe3QG9XQ8Dgbucub_qB3cyW7v2vpDaA8s3N68HL6JUNIH4cHwhDz2lBqPBaiJ3RqURHf7hIiRuddiplPyOxLTCUICkcaGgzi3s/s1600/2013PT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd0N7c8dfOwlzBwzx4FL9yu9-tsxC1DBcQf8xFMnU3xpe3QG9XQ8Dgbucub_qB3cyW7v2vpDaA8s3N68HL6JUNIH4cHwhDz2lBqPBaiJ3RqURHf7hIiRuddiplPyOxLTCUICkcaGgzi3s/s640/2013PT.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxgF7D4mBuHVn8h_3B5e_XGcpFRI96JoeIAf8NBcxy81pbw8AJ4FU4XoaL-qBPwYzJytLlNiTQFHWM22ZpWRR4vX8TyLDjG7SWpElSXotF9zoB26Z_UW7MCnYcsP8Aq8fmQVnDV2nmHSU/s1600/2013$.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxgF7D4mBuHVn8h_3B5e_XGcpFRI96JoeIAf8NBcxy81pbw8AJ4FU4XoaL-qBPwYzJytLlNiTQFHWM22ZpWRR4vX8TyLDjG7SWpElSXotF9zoB26Z_UW7MCnYcsP8Aq8fmQVnDV2nmHSU/s640/2013$.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZq10ZxYkuaLXCSUGlgTSsC5RdLP7mkj679r_v9q6dZFxY5rJ77U8c4x9iAc97b47cvwHQVBhhGW4c3ip4tnKnvlpWJPmiPquxOecZ4gF8q4yWGmvvr1id-QB67bzDT8pBlpjbxKHshE8/s1600/2013BB.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZq10ZxYkuaLXCSUGlgTSsC5RdLP7mkj679r_v9q6dZFxY5rJ77U8c4x9iAc97b47cvwHQVBhhGW4c3ip4tnKnvlpWJPmiPquxOecZ4gF8q4yWGmvvr1id-QB67bzDT8pBlpjbxKHshE8/s640/2013BB.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd0N7c8dfOwlzBwzx4FL9yu9-tsxC1DBcQf8xFMnU3xpe3QG9XQ8Dgbucub_qB3cyW7v2vpDaA8s3N68HL6JUNIH4cHwhDz2lBqPBaiJ3RqURHf7hIiRuddiplPyOxLTCUICkcaGgzi3s/s1600/2013PT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4217844300931479503.post-190383810543107832013-05-31T23:22:00.002-07:002013-05-31T23:26:31.443-07:00Merciful End to MayThis is what my trip has looked like so far:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA7UwdopF9WfT0W0OftT51xUdKapJFFzuVfD0hBWlLC06o_VXv473KL_cQKETzDcPmOaCmH_2NZHD2GoYM8CrcH932G2paDKCmGihTuETSgTk9Pb8u4FQmaVG7laI1O-963LHabrUXAyo/s1600/CaboPT.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA7UwdopF9WfT0W0OftT51xUdKapJFFzuVfD0hBWlLC06o_VXv473KL_cQKETzDcPmOaCmH_2NZHD2GoYM8CrcH932G2paDKCmGihTuETSgTk9Pb8u4FQmaVG7laI1O-963LHabrUXAyo/s640/CaboPT.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMI1AytVn7T0TKQLOJXDrna_Hywd4uEaZ7v9H77DZwlykQcn87T2zOUAd4Nt7pEBudgfAXA2REHlsa9PnMm021XPZwjeeKV4R89ygBNS5rRJxz-9YEskRdt-fVwJwcsLGRmWeaBJbpUbY/s1600/MayBB.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="417" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMI1AytVn7T0TKQLOJXDrna_Hywd4uEaZ7v9H77DZwlykQcn87T2zOUAd4Nt7pEBudgfAXA2REHlsa9PnMm021XPZwjeeKV4R89ygBNS5rRJxz-9YEskRdt-fVwJwcsLGRmWeaBJbpUbY/s640/MayBB.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
After winning about 770 BB's in 16K hands, I went on an 770 BB downer over my next sixty thousand hands. I'll skip the obvious, I ran extremely bad. But I also played about as bad as I ever played for a 5-10K hand stretch. <br />
<br />
I say this every year and I'll probably continue saying it every year. Do not underestimate the variance in poker, particular in limit hold-em. However bad you think it can get, it can get much, much worse. And don't underestimate the impact it will have on your game. Every time without fail when I go through one of these extended stretches of run bad, my game completely deteriorates and I start making all kinds of errors I'd never make otherwise.<br />
<br />
I've learned a couple things from this downswing. One is that I need to start taking breaks. I played 335 hours this month which took a severe toll on my game. At one point, I misread the board three times in the span of an hour. So starting next year, I'm committing myself to taking time off anytime I start to feel burned out.<br />
<br />
The other thing I learned is that I can't wake up and jump into high limit games. At least ten mornings this month I woke up, immediately sat in 4 high limit games and was down 5k in less than an hour. I'm always groggy and can't think straight when I wake up. It takes a while for my mind to get going and to be in a poker frame of mind. What I was doing every day would be the equivalent of Ray Allen sleeping in the bleachers, rolling out of bed and immediately getting into a NBA basketball game with guys that had been competing for hours. He'd have no shot of competing and neither do I. Two days ago, I decided not to play anything higher than 30/60 until I'm confident I'm thinking clearly.<br />
<br />
On the VPP front I'm up to 400K which I believe puts me right on SNE pace. I'm hoping to finish by the end of September and will need to average about 150K/Month to accomplish that. <br />
<br />
Good luck at the tables.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17546810159422742271noreply@blogger.com4