I started out the year running at ~3 BB/100 after my first 40K hands so it doesn't feel too good to end the trip on this note. It's been quite a roller coaster so far, winning 1100 plus big bets, losing 750, winning 650, and ending on about a 250 downer. I was extremely lucky to run well at high limits and run so poorly at lower limits: I ran at roughly 2.3 BB/100 at 30/60+ over 43K hands and (.38) BB/100 at 15/30 and lower over 83K hands. My lowest win rates have always come at 10/20 and 15/30 and undoubtedly rake is playing a big part in that. But there shouldn't be that big of a disparity, maybe 1 BB/100 or so which is close to the difference in rake.
I played pretty poorly the last few weeks I was here. I've felt really unmotivated and bored as of late. This is partly due to the high limit games on Stars being exceptionally dead. 70% of my hands this month came at 15/30 and lower (the majority of those at 10/20) which is pretty scary. In February, about 60% of my hands were 15/30 and lower and in January it was close to 50%. Overall this year about 65% of my hands have been at 15/30 and lower. Last year at this time only 45% were 15/30 and lower and I'd only played 17K hands of 10/20 compared with 51K this year. Only two years ago at this time 90% of my hands were 30/60 and higher and 1% were at 10/20!
What does this all mean? Pretty much what we've known for a long time, limit HE is dying particularly high stakes. It also means that I can't expect to earn anywhere near what I've earned in the past. I've been very lucky this year to run good at my highest limits, reverse the limits and the variance and I easily could of broke even over this stretch.
Rather than sit idly and complain about it, it's time to learn a new game. This is really something I should have done at least a year ago, the writings been on the wall. PLO seems like the best money making opportunity, there are numerous games running around the clock at all stakes. I've been reading, watching videos, and playing a little bit this past week. I've got a long, long way to go to be where I want to be but I'm fully committed at this point to doing everything it takes to become proficient at PLO. I'm playing 50 cent/$1 at the moment and won't move up until I'm confident I'm better than the vast majority of the players I'm playing against. I'm hoping that within a year or so I'll be playing $1/2 and $2/4 and ultimately I'd like to play at least $10/$20. So that's the plan. I'll still be playing a lot of limit in the mean time to pay the bills and make SNE but nearly all my downtime will be spent on PLO.
I'm heading back to the US tomorrow for 3-4 weeks. It's a much needed break, I feel burnt out with poker and discouraged at the lack of games. I'm not sure where we're headed next but hopefully I'll come back fresh and motivated.
Good luck at the tables.