Tuesday, October 15, 2013

2013 Statistical Year in Review

I don't know why I enjoy doing this so much, I guess I really like statistics.  It does provide some insight to where my money is coming from, the variance involved, and changes in the LHE environment.

The first number listed is from 2012, the second from 2013 comes after the slash, and if there's a third, it's the cumulative.


Hands Played: 510471/519500
Money Won: $296971/$349061
Rakeback Earned: ~$120,000/$120000
Total Money Won:$416971/$469061
Money Won Per Hand:$0.82/$0.90
Total Hours Played: 2082/2235
$/Hour: $200.27/$210
Average Hours Played per Week: 58/60

% of Hands Played By Limit (2012 #'s don't include some hands played in December): 

5/10: .4%/1.31%
10/20:  24.4%/30.61%
15/30: 29.5%/27.14%
30/60: 24%/30.61%
50/10: 12.4%/12.36%
100/200: 6.5%/3.38%
200/400: 2.6%/1.6%

30/60+: 45.5%/40.92%

Win Rate by Limit in Big Bets/100 Hands.  Standard Error assume Standard Deviation of 19

5/10: (2.64)/2.02  Cum:.0.81   Standard Error: 1.98 BB/100
10/20 .79/.08 Cum 0.39          Standard Error: .36 BB/100
15/30 1.27/.49 Cum: .90         Standard Error: .35 BB/100
30/60 .85/2.07 Cum: 1.44       Standard Error: .38 BB/100
50/100 .84/1.52 Cum: 1.17     Standard Error: .53 BB/100
100/200: .88/2.03 Cum: 1.25  Standard Error: .82 BB/100
200/400: .25/.1 Cum 0.2         Standard Error: 1.26 BB/100

Average $ Won Per Hand By Limit Including Rakeback:

10/20: $0.39/$0.23  Cum: .$0.30
15/30: $0.64/$0.38  Cum: $0.52
30/60: $0.84/$1.47  Cum: $1.15
50/100: $1.06/$1.78  Cum: $1.41
100/200: $1.86/$4.33 Cum: $2.65
200/400: $3.15/$0.69 Cum: $2.25


Two biggest Downswings in BB's:

860 BB's (In 13K Hands!)/ 730 BB's in ~30K hands
690 BB's (In 31K Hands)/ 680 BB's in ~55K hands

Biggest Upswing: 2400 BB's over 130K hands (No downswing more than 250 BB's over that stretch)
Biggest Upswing 2013: 3900 BB's over 350K hands (No downswing more than 350 BB's) *Amazing good luck

Longest Breakeven Stretch: 173,000 Hands / ~160K hands

Biggest Downswings in $ (Excluding Rakeback):

102K over 30K hands / 68K in 27K hands
70K over 24K hands / 50K in 13K hands

Biggest Upswings in $ (Excluding Rakeback):

203K over 169K Hands (No downswing more than 28K over that stretch) /143K over 120K hands
98K over 47K hands / 110K over 75K hands

Longest Breakeven Stretch:

238,000 Hands / 159,000 Hands (I actually won $8K over this stretch)


Approximate money lost to power outages and internet disconnects:$16,000 / <$1,000
Approximate money paid/to be paid in taxes before deductions: $175,000/ / $197,0000

Monday, October 14, 2013

5 In a Row!

Rejoice mid/high stakes limit HE players, I won't be sitting at all your tables for twelve hours a day at least for another two to three months.  I'm hoping to take the rest of the year off and come back in mid January but that's dependent on how my other gambling endeavors go, mainly sports betting.  There's a chance I may make a 1-2 week to Toronto to visit friends and play, otherwise it'll be next year.

I exceeded my expectations this year in terms of money won but my win rate decreased slightly from last year.  I still think there's quite a bit of room for improvement in my game though.  I put minimal effort into my game but plan on doing some work/studying when I get back home.  My biggest strength by far this year was emotional control.  The number of decisions I made that were influenced by emotion were less than any other year.  If I had to venture a guess, I'd say less than 1 out of every 1000 had any emotion involved.  So I'm happy there but not too happy with the overall progress of my game.  I also was extremely unhealthy for the last five months of this year.  I didn't work out a single time.  That's the biggest thing I need to change next year.

I will likely do a statistical review like I did last year and compare the two years.  Also starting next year I think I'm going to start tracking things daily like money won/lost, big bets won/lost, along with things like how much water I drank that day, whether I worked out, and my general mindset.  I'd like to get a gauge on just how much these things matter.  I'm not sure even a year worth of data is going to tell me too much but eventually I think the data could prove useful.  It also will commit me to staying hydrated, working out, and paying attention to my mental state.  And out of curiosity, I'm interested in the type of swings that can occur on a daily basis.  This year alone, I believe I had my winning-est day ever, winning 371 BB's along with three of biggest losing days ever: I lost around 250 BB's each of those days.  It's likely just variance at play but there seemed to be many more extreme days than usual.

This is what my year ended up looking like.  I'll be thrilled if I'm as successful next year.

Good luck to everyone still chasing SNE.