Sunday, June 17, 2012

Positive Stake Variance And An End To My Worst Downswing

I ended my last blog hoping my next post would be about a big upswing and sure enough it is.  Had I only known that's all it takes.

Aside from a couple exceptional days I still don't feel like I'm running too well overall and that's reflected in my win rate.  I'm at about 1 BB/100 for the year now which is about a quarter of a big bet lower than I've averaged the past few years.  I don't think I've played fantastically by any stretch this year though so it is possible my win rate isn't too far off.

I also just eclipsed my previous dollar high which took place 170 thousand hands ago.  Yes a hundred and seventy thousand hand break-even stretch, by far the longest I've ever been through.  A big part of it is playing stakes that range from 5/10 to 200/400, the higher the stakes I play the longer I anticipate these types of stretches to last due to the irregularity of high stakes games running.  Going into the year I had had several 100 thousand hand breakeven stretches but I wasn't regularly playing 100-200 and 200-400 until last year.

On the VPP front, I'm up to about 525K.  We've decided to stay in Costa Rica until early September instead of traveling home and then to Mexico.  I'm hoping to make SNE by then and take the last 3-4 months of the year off.  I need to average something like 5500 VPPs a day for the rest of my time here to do that so it'll be challenging.

Good luck at the tables everyone.


  1. wow....thats quite a graph . best of luck with the chase down . look forward to seeing those stars.

  2. Hope you get SNE again this year Tony. Always like to read your posts on your blog. Glad to see you turned things around. See you in September! Keep it up. More pictures please...JG

  3. Thanks Jeff, I'll tell Jamena to start taking some more pictures. Man I can't wait to get home and play pool, I've played twice in three months now, pretty sad. When I get back, that's all I plan on doing. See you in September.

  4. i stumbled on this after "googling" the players when railing the high stakes tables and have found it great help with my own game. I combined information here with accumulated hand histories and would personally like to thank you for elevating my game to a reasonable level. That said.. i wasn't great before. keep up the good work!

  5. You're welcome, glad I could help.

  6. hi tony, i have a couple questions if you ever have time to answer :) i appreciate you have a lot of grinding to do and don't want to give away your secret tips but here goes... when 3 or 4 betting from the small blind against one "standard" opponent in the HJ, or 2 standard opponents where HJ raised and button called.
    situation 1) i assume you look at PFR %, and if below X% you would 3 bet or call with varying Broadway combos /Pocket pairs/ (suited connectors raise sometimes but mostly flat??). Postflop i assume you would lead the betting and then look at his flop raise % if he raised?
    situation 2) i assume you look HJ PFR%, then look at btns flatting range, then raise or call depending on HJ's theoretical range.